Cheating is different, but in a market where there are no rules there is no cheating. If you think the market should play by your rules and cry foul every time you are crushed, my recommendation is quit the game. So keep on margin trading, but quit your crying and blaming others for YOUR decision to gamble. Trading 50-100/1 on margin is pure gambling. If you think you lost because of market manipulation I would recommend putting a mirror next to your trading screen, welcome to the real world!
Only a few days ago Marc and I, in one of our numerous conversations, were discussing where we could expect to see a pullback for Bitcoin . Needless to say we were expecting Bitcoin' to reverse between 7600-7800. Though I mentioned in my previous article, Bitcoin' could catch a second wind and rally towards our target of 8215, I was just as surprised as anyone to see bitcoin' rally to 8500. In the end the only one that is right is the market. With that said this was not only a significant move but an important one for investors as well.
Bitcoin' tested the bottom of our or the 0.618 retrace of the prevailing overall swing. This is a major for bitcoin to push through. At S.C. we are looking for a pullback, consolidation and a trade setup before Bitcoin' pushes through this with an initial target an ideal target of 8850. Keep in mind this is in the middle of a major so we are looking for a broader wave 1 top within the target zone or a continuation impulse to the 10k area.
Shallow support is found around 8000 and a reversal here could result in a retest of the current high or a push to the low 9k's. Ideally we are looking at the 7500-7715 area for support and a potential trade setup. There is also an extreme between 6850 and 7050 where we likely see the bears come out of hibernation, calling for 4k again. Where is my buddy venture lately ;)?
Bottom line, in this initial rally we were conservative in our trades, and though two of them came within $1.50 of the buy trigger, they reversed short of our limit order and rallied.
Missing a good trade is not the same as taking a bad one. We also are not guess the direction of the market or guessing where we pullback to or when. What we are looking for is how the market plays out where we can now be more aggressive in implementing a strategy based on the structure and trade signals. This is not a one strategy fits all. Being able to adapt to the market is critical in both investing and trading, and why we have several different strategies in our tool box, no different then a mechanic has different tools in his.
1) If you know the casino is rigged and yet you still walk in and play, do not cry about losing your money. Call 1-800 gambler you have a problem!
2) The whole reason for crypto currencies is for "decentralization", and yet as soon as some feel it is unfair, they want government intervention via regulations? hmmmmmmmm
3) We have mentioned, wait WARNED, many times that shorting into these levels is just asking to get crushed in a short squeeze where larger fish take the opportunity from guppies, to eat them up after chumming the waters. If you were shorting into an extreme low then I hope you learned your lesson. Education is NOT cheap.
4) I have been pounding the table about the risks of margin trading since September. If your whining about getting REKT, then go on Amazon.com and search for "Big Boy Pants" because you really need a pair. Your going to gamble in these markets leveraged to the hilt, you deserve to be on tilt!
I am a newbie at TA and in the crypto market, but I have analyzed price patterns when compared to other assets outside of the crypto market. The behaviour is not quite the same, the BART move is real and so far I have not seen it so clear and so often as it happens with BTC. Where there may be days or weeks with another asset, it takes minutes with BTC to zig-zag up and down like a wild horse only to resume trend. You mention Buy or Sell triggers, many times they are clear for many people, including Bitmex's trade desk. How is it that hundreds of people set-up a trade with various entries and SLs which are sometimes spaced 200-300 points apart but then zig-zag moves show up, runs through all entries and SLs then conveniently goes in the exact direction the traders predicted it would. Do you honestly believe Bitmex's trading desk does not have access to the order book? What about those wicks (either down or up) that show up out of the blue sky? Did thousands of people jointly decided to do that in that in sync at that point-in-time? That's a bit far fetched.. And last but not least, what about those million contract walls showing up to the left then 5-10 minutes later to the right? Is that also just people in the market jointly doing that in sync? "Oh, hey everyone, we're buying! Ah, boring, we're selling! Hey, you know what, let's buy again! Ah, what the heck , let's just dump this by the hundreds in a few minutes. This will make it more believable that it's the "market" and not us..". :)
Yes, hear hear, study is one thing. But I was talking more about manipulation. Studying definitely helps but doesn't prevent or beat manipulation. If only studying is key then we'd be correct on 100% trades; so far I failed to find one that can do that number.
Yes, Bitmex doesn't trade actual BTC but what difference does it make at this point? For all I know, they could trade BTC on other exchanges. With one side they trade one way then the other side sets up contracts the opposite way. A couple of days ago when the price dropped at around 19:00 GMT, there was another drop a few minutes later on Bitmex. However, this second drop was not registered on other exchanges. What, are all users of Bitmex in sync to trade in one direction that no one else is? Or do all Bitmex users decide to put a wall of buys and sells every 5-10 minutes? Again, knowledge is one thing and manipulation is another. If you don't believe it's there, no big deal; to you or me.
1. Don't trade against the trend. You're probably going to lose. No, you don't know what the market is going to do. Just bet in the direction it seems to be telling you it's going on the daily timeframe.
2. Move stop losses to break even and then profit as soon as you can. Don't let your losers run.
3. Let your winners run. Don't move your stop losses too tight when you're in profit until the trend changes. I had a big old 25x long from 6.5k btc and got stopped at 6.7k but I felt good that I made profit. Then it went up to 8.4k and I wasn't so happy about that decision.
4. Have a small anti-fomo fund that you allow yourself to put in when it's pumping and you feel the urge to go all in and know you shouldn't. It makes you feel better and you don't risk blowing out your portfolio buying high.
5. Have a system that you follow without question when you're in the moment. Only tweak it after a post-mortem on your trades.
6. Have fun, we're in an amazing moment in history, and it's still early!
1) The trend is relevant. Draw a trend line from 2015 and it is clearly up. Draw a trendline from Dec 2017 and its down. Time frame is relevant and using the daily is for shorter term trends.
2) This is my favorite quote "use stop losses". Word of the day for new traders SLIPPAGE
3) Do not try and time the market, and your trade is the reason most investors outperform traders in the long term
4) Do the opposite of your emotions, as your emotions are almost always wrong
5) Not sure I agree in its entirety but ok
6) Make Money. Money allows you to have fun when your older!!
Thanks for the comments, I think!