Big speculators positioned themselves before the rip, what now?

Overnight, Bitcoin leaped higher, breaking above $44,500. As this move was preceded by an aggressive rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC, we consider it important to watch out for what will happen to this number in the upcoming days; a drop in the figure could suggest large speculators are utilizing an uptick in the price to sell holdings accumulated during the recent dip, raising slight concerns and dampening the chances of Bitcoin continuing to new highs. On the technical side, the RSI’s bearish structure became distorted, and the MACD fully entered a bullish zone above the midpoint (on the daily time frame). Both of these developments are bullish in the short term. Consequently, it seems appropriate to keep targeting $48,000 for as long as Bitcoin stays above $43,900.

Illustration 1.01

The chart above shows a distortion of the RSI’s bearish structure on the daily chart.

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of Bitcoin’s MACD. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout into a bullish area.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Comment:

So far, there are no signs of large speculators (wallets with +1,000 BTC) liquidating their positions. However, the rise in the figure came to a halt and the number of smaller speculators (wallets with +100 BTC) is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. We will keep monitoring the situation also in the upcoming days.

Comment:

As Bitcoin is trading above $47,000, it might be worth moving a trailing stop higher from $43,900.