As the market cools off the magical question is when will it end. BTC has been in a down trend for over two months and sideways for even longer. IF we consider how far price has retraced since its 15...k bottom so far we have only retrace 1/3 of the swing to the upside.
With that said at each stop along the way down price will rally and each rally has the potential to be the one that continues to the upside. This is the unknowable at what level should we expect a full on reversal to the upside.
Personally I am open to price as low as it wants to go. YES I am open to 12k, 8k, maybe even 3k btc but that doesn't mean price will go there. It is simply an acknowledgement that at the end of the day price will go where it needs to go to reach a point where buyers TRUELY outweigh sellers and when or where that will be is unknowable.
With that said what is knowable? When the rebalance of buyers vs sellers or supply vs demand is equal and buyers truly outweigh sellers this will display its self in the price "action" on the chart. It is what TA is all about. Being able to identify what is going on in the liquidity cycle. Supply willing and able to be sold vs demand and willingness to buy.
So what is the test and how do we know when the time has come? Following the momentum of buying and selling in the market and how it effects the increase and decrease in price.
Currently momentum has built to the upside and as such price is moving to the upside. What we are looking for is how far does the momentum push up the price. If the move is small and fails to brake key levels this signals there is still a large amount of willing and able sellers preventing a true reversal. Likewise when the momentum rolls back to the down side, how far does price drop? Does it drop significantly signaling there is still a large number of short sellers and lack of buyers to absorb or does it do a small retrace, consolidate, and rotate to the upside indicating that there is truly a lack of sellers that are far out weighed by those willing and able to buy.
Personally I am still on the short side BUT when the market changes if you don't change your mind with it the market will gladly move on with out you. Being I am on the short side I would prefer to see lower prices but when the market doesn't give what you want you must take what it gives.
This is a 1hr chart and as momentum has rolled to the upside we have seen a decent and healthy rise in the price. IF buyers are truly in the drivers seat and sellers have been sufficiently depleted when momentum rolls to the downside the retrace should be small and as it rolls back to the upside the next move up should be large. IF it is what occurs it is time to consider and end to the short trend. IF we see another large move down as the momentum rolls to the down side a continuation is likely as this would indicate buyers are still weak and sellers have not been yet depleted.
Where it ends no body knows but we can be mindful of where it may reverse (as in right in here) and what for the signs that it will.
Trade Well......
With that said at each stop along the way down price will rally and each rally has the potential to be the one that continues to the upside. This is the unknowable at what level should we expect a full on reversal to the upside.
Personally I am open to price as low as it wants to go. YES I am open to 12k, 8k, maybe even 3k btc but that doesn't mean price will go there. It is simply an acknowledgement that at the end of the day price will go where it needs to go to reach a point where buyers TRUELY outweigh sellers and when or where that will be is unknowable.
With that said what is knowable? When the rebalance of buyers vs sellers or supply vs demand is equal and buyers truly outweigh sellers this will display its self in the price "action" on the chart. It is what TA is all about. Being able to identify what is going on in the liquidity cycle. Supply willing and able to be sold vs demand and willingness to buy.
So what is the test and how do we know when the time has come? Following the momentum of buying and selling in the market and how it effects the increase and decrease in price.
Currently momentum has built to the upside and as such price is moving to the upside. What we are looking for is how far does the momentum push up the price. If the move is small and fails to brake key levels this signals there is still a large amount of willing and able sellers preventing a true reversal. Likewise when the momentum rolls back to the down side, how far does price drop? Does it drop significantly signaling there is still a large number of short sellers and lack of buyers to absorb or does it do a small retrace, consolidate, and rotate to the upside indicating that there is truly a lack of sellers that are far out weighed by those willing and able to buy.
Personally I am still on the short side BUT when the market changes if you don't change your mind with it the market will gladly move on with out you. Being I am on the short side I would prefer to see lower prices but when the market doesn't give what you want you must take what it gives.
This is a 1hr chart and as momentum has rolled to the upside we have seen a decent and healthy rise in the price. IF buyers are truly in the drivers seat and sellers have been sufficiently depleted when momentum rolls to the downside the retrace should be small and as it rolls back to the upside the next move up should be large. IF it is what occurs it is time to consider and end to the short trend. IF we see another large move down as the momentum rolls to the down side a continuation is likely as this would indicate buyers are still weak and sellers have not been yet depleted.
Where it ends no body knows but we can be mindful of where it may reverse (as in right in here) and what for the signs that it will.
Trade Well......
