I'm posting this with thanks to a friend who alerted me to the CME gaps.
1. On the BTC1! and BTC2! CME futures charts, there are two gaps between 26 and 29 March. These are marked in green and red on the chart above, with some overlap between them. 26 to 29 March was a key moment for BTC, especially if we understand the whole macro structure as forming in a wedge. This moment also aligns to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement on the downside move from 13 to 25 March, and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement if we focus only on the downside move from 20 March to 25 March. Further to the wedge analysis, this is all playing out between the 0.236 and 0.5 and 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci extension if we go from the bottom of January's correction through to the bottom of the first phase of BTCs present correction 28 February.
2. In the zone of the CME gap you can clearly see two phases of short term accumulation. The CME futures market missed this. It was the weekend. So far as that market is concerned, this happened on the chart, but hasn't been tested in the CME futures market. CME gaps are nearly always filled subsequently.
3. This adds some confluence to the possibility in the linked analysis of a further correction on BTC from where it is currently. However, it would suggest that this will be a shorter correction than a full correction, for example down to the 0.786. That it is a breakout retest, not phase three of a staggered correction. That said, when CME gaps are filled in it is often in the middle of an impulse. So a downside move possibly as low as $52.4k cannot be discounted merely because a CME gap exists. On the bullish side, a positive retest at $54.4k could suggest strong upside potential for the next leg of BTC's parabolic bull run.
4. Other CME gaps exist in the BTC chart much lower down and are not yet filled. But as this is so local, and close, it does suggest a reach down over the next six days. BTC could still reach down to $54.4 while remaining in a breakout from the descending trendline of the wedge formation. As such, this would be a retest of that trendline before continuing to the upside. Traders who trade breakouts will recognise this set up easily.
Let me know your thoughts.
1. On the BTC1! and BTC2! CME futures charts, there are two gaps between 26 and 29 March. These are marked in green and red on the chart above, with some overlap between them. 26 to 29 March was a key moment for BTC, especially if we understand the whole macro structure as forming in a wedge. This moment also aligns to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement on the downside move from 13 to 25 March, and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement if we focus only on the downside move from 20 March to 25 March. Further to the wedge analysis, this is all playing out between the 0.236 and 0.5 and 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci extension if we go from the bottom of January's correction through to the bottom of the first phase of BTCs present correction 28 February.
2. In the zone of the CME gap you can clearly see two phases of short term accumulation. The CME futures market missed this. It was the weekend. So far as that market is concerned, this happened on the chart, but hasn't been tested in the CME futures market. CME gaps are nearly always filled subsequently.
3. This adds some confluence to the possibility in the linked analysis of a further correction on BTC from where it is currently. However, it would suggest that this will be a shorter correction than a full correction, for example down to the 0.786. That it is a breakout retest, not phase three of a staggered correction. That said, when CME gaps are filled in it is often in the middle of an impulse. So a downside move possibly as low as $52.4k cannot be discounted merely because a CME gap exists. On the bullish side, a positive retest at $54.4k could suggest strong upside potential for the next leg of BTC's parabolic bull run.
4. Other CME gaps exist in the BTC chart much lower down and are not yet filled. But as this is so local, and close, it does suggest a reach down over the next six days. BTC could still reach down to $54.4 while remaining in a breakout from the descending trendline of the wedge formation. As such, this would be a retest of that trendline before continuing to the upside. Traders who trade breakouts will recognise this set up easily.
Let me know your thoughts.
Comment:
In case it needs to be said: 1) This scenario might not happen. The CME gap could be left to be filled on the other side of BTC's blow-off top; 2) Aside from the breakout beyond the descending trend line and the consolidation there, there have been two taps already, last night's dump being the second. Very possible there is no third retest. Even the second tap stopped slightly short of the line; perhaps we see a full touch and then out and up; 3) On the other hand, beware of a potential fake breakout to the upside, if that happens. There will be stop loss hunting in both directions, and a break to the upside before continuation to the downside would be very normal. 4) Very difficult for those aiming to trade alts rights now, especially on leverage, and even for those seeking to buy and hold. We're all aware that alt season is right above us. But a drop to $54k would pull many coins into nice buy zones. On the other hand, their best price points could also be right now. Painful, all this uncertainty.
Comment:
05 Apr 2021 16:57:45: I think the wedge was valid, but the trend line was slightly off. We've had our double tap. It appears BTC is moving on to the upside. The CME gaps will remain — like others down in the 20s area — unfilled, it seems.
Comment:
18 Apr 2021 16:38:41: Very curious how the CME gap was filled in the end.
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
