I've been wondering why BTC printed a lower high amid a series of higher lows.
And I've been trying to piece together all the parts of my recent attempts (linked below) to analyse the BTC chart and discern what is happening and what may happen next.
1) Earlier, I posted a chart of a wedge with a breakout, and possible retest. I got spooked by the fakeout to the upside 05 April, but this original chart is still in play, in my view.
Along with consolidation on the breakout line, BTC has tapped this descending trend line three times, and is going in for the fourth and final retest, likely reaching down to the 0.618 of the Fibonacci taken on the upside move from 25 March to 02 April.
3) Again, thinking about the lower high, I start to wonder if BTC is not again printing a massive W formation, as it did in the February-March correction.
The whole wave is slowing, and this is now discernible, arguably, on a month by month basis.
The February-March correction took much longer than January.
The March-April correction appears to be playing out over an even longer timeframe.
3) The W formation in the February-March correction is obvious. And it led, as expected, to a retest of the neckline. This was the most recent major low of 25 March.
Could BTC be printing now the bottom of the middle section of another massive W formation?
This formation appears very much extended, compared to the sharp and obvious February-March W formation.
4) Adding in Fibonacci fans helps us chart the possible trajectory of the coming upside impulse, if this macro projection and analysis of what is being printed turns out to be valid.
So we will break the descending trend line, tap the 0.618, and then move to the upside for a new ATH.
It is probable that 60K will then act as the neckline of this W formation, and be retested subsequently.
What do you see? Let me know your thoughts.
And I've been trying to piece together all the parts of my recent attempts (linked below) to analyse the BTC chart and discern what is happening and what may happen next.
1) Earlier, I posted a chart of a wedge with a breakout, and possible retest. I got spooked by the fakeout to the upside 05 April, but this original chart is still in play, in my view.
Along with consolidation on the breakout line, BTC has tapped this descending trend line three times, and is going in for the fourth and final retest, likely reaching down to the 0.618 of the Fibonacci taken on the upside move from 25 March to 02 April.
3) Again, thinking about the lower high, I start to wonder if BTC is not again printing a massive W formation, as it did in the February-March correction.
The whole wave is slowing, and this is now discernible, arguably, on a month by month basis.
The February-March correction took much longer than January.
The March-April correction appears to be playing out over an even longer timeframe.
3) The W formation in the February-March correction is obvious. And it led, as expected, to a retest of the neckline. This was the most recent major low of 25 March.
Could BTC be printing now the bottom of the middle section of another massive W formation?
This formation appears very much extended, compared to the sharp and obvious February-March W formation.
4) Adding in Fibonacci fans helps us chart the possible trajectory of the coming upside impulse, if this macro projection and analysis of what is being printed turns out to be valid.
So we will break the descending trend line, tap the 0.618, and then move to the upside for a new ATH.
It is probable that 60K will then act as the neckline of this W formation, and be retested subsequently.
What do you see? Let me know your thoughts.
Comment:
09 Apr 2021 15:46:33: Very hard to say what is playing out here. There is an obvious inverse head and shoulders pattern, starting 14 March. If that holds and plays out, there would be no need necessarily to return to 54.4, though it could. There is no slope on the neckline. If 54.4 was revisited, this would leave the shoulders more or less symmetrical too. If 54.4 is not revisited, I'd struggle to explain why the section of the wave from 25 March didn't correct to the 0.618 Fibonacci and stopped short of the 0.5. For the upward push BTC needs to make, one would except the 0.618 at least to be revisited. This is the level it reached 25 March after the 28 February to 13 March upside move. Perhaps two (arguably three) taps of the descending line of the wedge, if we see 29 March as a breakout, was enough? Right now, it's a very mixed picture, leaving the whole cryptospace in limbo, aside from a few alts that are running, as a few always do. Will it be a green or a red weekend? The major leg down between 24 and 25 March happened in 24hrs. It was swift and deep, so we should know soon if BTC wants to go up or down. I see down, but there are great forces in play on the longer timelines that could push it higher. But if it went higher, would it have the liquidity and strength to break through the 60k barrier after only visiting the 0.5? Because three rejections at 60k might force us to consider some rather disconcerting scenarios, including a possible break down through the levels, past 54.4. If 50.3 didn't hold, 46.6 would be next, and 43 after that. If that didn't hold, 38.7, but on such a drop, even that might not hold.
Comment:
11 Apr 2021 09:39:26: At this point, I really hope 59 holds, and BTC just keeps going up. But I can't help but to observe that unlike in late February, the lower zone of the Fibonacci fans (probably at around 56, by the time BTC could get there) wasn't visited.
Comment:
18 Apr 2021 16:38:41: Very curious how the CME gap was filled in the end.
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