TradingShot

BITCOIN Will 2020 be the year of recovery and accumulation?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I have been asked by certain enthusiastic followers (I thank everyone for the support), to make an update on the following chart:


*$6000 bottom while everyone was bullish to 20K*
As you see it was late September with Bitcoin trading at $10000 and everyone pretty bullish when this idea was published talking about a potential ~ $6000 bottom. Radical or not we've reached the 6000 region last week but as that chart shows we are far from getting the current (2nd) Accumulation phase of this Bull Cycle over.

*The May 2020 Halving*
The reason is simple and has a name: Bitcoin's 2020 (3rd) Halving. That correction is directly related to the upcoming 3rd Halving and the implications where thoroughly discussed on the following study:


BTC tends to stay low on the 1W MA150 before the Halving, consolidate and rise a few weeks towards the Halving.

*So where are we now? The importance of the High Volatility Zone*
I expect a similar pattern to play out this time also as the current Accumulation Phase is far from over. They key element that makes a small difference this time is the High Volatility zone which was extensively analyzed on the following study:


As you see in 2014 - 2016 that zone kept Bitcoin ranged within a Triangle up until roughly 2 weeks before the halving (price almost doubled). This time the Volatility zone is again there calling for consolidation before the Halving. The difference is that due to the stronger early rise from April to June, the price had to correct more aggressively leaving many traders think that this is something more than "expected". But it is perfectly normal and within Bitcoin's long term models.

*Similarities*
The similarities are strong. Just last week the price touched the 1W MA150. This puts the contact at 350 days from the market bottom. Surprisingly during the 2016 cycle, the price also made contact with the 1W MA150 350 days from the bottom. Also the time from the bear cycle bottom to the Halving was 546 days in 2015/16 and 518 days now (2019/20). Note that if the price doubles from last week's bottom (6500), as it happened is 2016 2 weeks before the Halving, we will reach 13000 which is roughly the June Top.

This justifies 100% my original September 22th idea of a prolonged consolidation within the 2nd Accumulation phase and the current analysis shows that almost a full year of consolidation in 2020 is certainly possible.

Coincidence or not, Bitcoin has an uncanny consistency at repeating cyclical patterns. Will it happen this time around? I say there are indeed more probabilities on its favor. But what do you think? Will 2020 be the year of Recovery and Accumulation? Let me know in the comments section!

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The death cross onf MACD signal on 1Month chart just happened, which means big drop will start soon.
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It is very possible but there is still a long road of recovery.

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@kardia Gold as a currency is ridiculous to trade but it has held its own as a store of value for millenia
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Here is the problem I see with BTC. It is slow and expensive to use for transactions. Therefore, its usecase sucks. Because of this, it is extremely overvalued and volatile. So what if there are only 20 million Bitcoin. What does that matter if its usecase sucks? What does that matter if it produces nothing? What does that matter if it's only good for trading? Unless Bitcoin's usecase dramatically improves, I don't see it ever returning to its ATH. Of course, that doesn't mean it can't return to its ATH. FOMO is a funny thing. Indeed, it can return to its ATH and beyond if FOMO kicks in. But will it be sustainable? I think the reason why BTC continues to diminish in value is because it is built on speculation, not on usecase. In other words, BTC appears to be built on an unsustainable model. BTC will eventually die under such conditions and be replaced with something better, with something stable, something not built purely on speculation but on usecase. People can argue that BTC is a store of value. Yes, that is what it appears to be, but how long will that last? Will it still be seen as such if it falls to 1k? And what if it has become a store of value? Well, then that means it is not fulfilling its true purpose, which makes BTC a failure. If BTC is a failure, then how long can it hold its value?
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@kardia, have you seen how many casinos there are? How many on average close down? I think you underestimate just how fierce speculation can be especially in the Asian markets. I agree that btc MAY not last forever. However I do believe the next few bubbles will be parabolic once again and could put 20 k as a bear market retrace. Yes I believe that’s how big a bubble could get hundreds of thousands of dollars. At some point I do find it Reaching some sort of stable value as a huge rally would have a huge extended downturn that may see btc ranging for many years. I just don’t see it constantly going parabolic time and time again. TLDR. One or two more huge bubbles coming before it settles in for a decade
+2 Reply
TradingShot BrandonGallegos
@BrandonGallegos, After +10 years are we still debating if BTC is a bubble or not?
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BrandonGallegos TradingShot
@TradingShot, bubbles form in every market son
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you have best idea)
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@Alex_Clay, Thanks Alex!
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What do you think?

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