Good morning, traders. If you have been with us in Discord, then you know that we have seen price play out as expected on the 1H TF when I drew the triangle. Early this morning we saw a break out and recent retest. Price is now attempting to head higher but it needs to exit the ~$5260 level convincingly. If your argument is that the daily is oversold so we MUST go down now, understand that bullish Bitcoin markets often spend quite a while oversold before retracing. Additionally, we are in a situation where the liquidity is much less than normal due to accumulation, so any extra bit of demand has a greater effect on price than it normally would.
As mentioned, price broke through the triangle resistance and this should create a target of $5465 based on the height of the triangle. A higher target of $5686, just above the 1H R1 pivot is based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that pennant/symmetrical triangle. And of course that would take price through the larger ascending triangle's resistance thereby creating a target of $6034 based on the height of that triangle. We also have a target of $5960 based on the height of the large ascending channel that began at the December low and which price broke bullishly through on April 1st. This cluster of pattern-based targets around $5960-$6034 lead me to believe that wave 3 will likely end in that area. Wave 4 would then be expected to pullback toward the 38.2% retracement level which aligns with the top of that ascending channel, and of course wave 5 would head up toward $6700 at least and potentially even $7780. The question becomes, if we see price target that higher level, how far will it retrace?
For now I will leave the lower target drawn on the daily chart but, at that higher point, the 38.2% retracement becomes the $6000 level and we would expect that level to hold as support. So do we then see a shallow larger wave 2 retracement only to that point and then a deeper wave 4 later? The structure would support that as the wave 4 could then retrace to 61.8% which would be a retest of $6000 one more time. Interestingly, that would give us a 5th wave target of around $14000-$15000 which aligns with the large corrective cycle descending wedge target. Of course this is all highly speculative at this point since we don't have this first set of 5 waves locked in yet, but it does paint a lucrative picture based on the the chart's structure. Again, before you dismiss it as not possible, remember what I said above about accumulation and liquidity. I will take a more in-depth look at all of this in a bit during this morning's Bitcoin video update on that other social media site.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
As mentioned, price broke through the triangle resistance and this should create a target of $5465 based on the height of the triangle. A higher target of $5686, just above the 1H R1 pivot is based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that pennant/symmetrical triangle. And of course that would take price through the larger ascending triangle's resistance thereby creating a target of $6034 based on the height of that triangle. We also have a target of $5960 based on the height of the large ascending channel that began at the December low and which price broke bullishly through on April 1st. This cluster of pattern-based targets around $5960-$6034 lead me to believe that wave 3 will likely end in that area. Wave 4 would then be expected to pullback toward the 38.2% retracement level which aligns with the top of that ascending channel, and of course wave 5 would head up toward $6700 at least and potentially even $7780. The question becomes, if we see price target that higher level, how far will it retrace?
For now I will leave the lower target drawn on the daily chart but, at that higher point, the 38.2% retracement becomes the $6000 level and we would expect that level to hold as support. So do we then see a shallow larger wave 2 retracement only to that point and then a deeper wave 4 later? The structure would support that as the wave 4 could then retrace to 61.8% which would be a retest of $6000 one more time. Interestingly, that would give us a 5th wave target of around $14000-$15000 which aligns with the large corrective cycle descending wedge target. Of course this is all highly speculative at this point since we don't have this first set of 5 waves locked in yet, but it does paint a lucrative picture based on the the chart's structure. Again, before you dismiss it as not possible, remember what I said above about accumulation and liquidity. I will take a more in-depth look at all of this in a bit during this morning's Bitcoin video update on that other social media site.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
