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1 day = Resistance < $6,800 | 1 week: breakdown $5,750| 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | Bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “The BTCUSDSHORT chart just entered extreme over bought zones and is going for a re test of the all time high. Combined with the funding rates being abnormally high (longs receive 0.1328%) is a strong indication that we should get a squeeze sooner rather than later.” / Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R = $6,542 | S = $6,282
BTCUSDSHORTS: Very surprised to see that this hasn’t pulled back with the price. Would indicate that squeeze hasn’t started yet. 41% long: 59% short
Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0732
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference):
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = - 6.77% | 128 = -14.22%
Volume: Significant daily volume on this move w/o short sellers pulling back surprises me
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,590
Candlestick analysis: Bounced off dragonfly. Long wick on top of current candle could create a very bearish look.
Ichimoku Cloud: will be apart of resistance cluster at $6,800. Tenken-sen resistance on 12h w c clamp.
TD’ Sequential: G-2 > G-1 on daily with price flip on 12h.
Visible Range: low volume node at $6,600 - $6,800 on most lookback periods (1d - 1m) but the 6 month shows $6,800 as major resistance
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12 = +2.64% | 24 = +6.65% | 1w = -3.91% | 2w = -14.32% | 1m = -2.86%
Bollinger Bands: Bouncing from bottom band, MA currently waits at $7,000
Trendline: Recently broken, puts me on alert for a reversal. Will it retest top of triangle before breaking down on or around 8/25
Daily Trend: bull
Fractals: Down is $5,983. Thought up would print at $6,553 on top of 8/13. Can someone tell me why it didn’t?
On Balance Volume: No div’
ADX: -DI and +DI are converging and ADX is moving upward > 25.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bouncing hard/fast after violating support.
RSI (30 setting): Just broke through resistance
Stoch: Going for 20 retest.
Summary: BTCUSDSHORTS charts and the funding rates strongly indicate the need for a short squeeze. However, other than that everything else I am seeing indicates the need to re test $5,750. I am fully expecting that level of support to breakdown on the next test and that is when the selling volume will increase drastically.
On day 164
I wrote:
“Being -7.63% in relation to the 12 EMA makes me think there is a 75% chance we retest $6,800 - $7,000 before continuing the draw down.”
I wrote that because I fully expected the price to retest the 12 EMA before breaking down $5,750 support. I strongly believe in the theory that major levels of support do not breakdown when the price is already oversold.
We retested it today and are wicking off of it pretty hard. To me that is a strong indication that we are no longer too oversold to breakdown the support. If you are not in a position I believe that shorting alts is the best play.
Interested to see what happens with the stoch as it approaches 20. If it gets rejected there then in would provide confirmation that we are in for a big move to the downside.
1 day = Resistance < $6,800 | 1 week: breakdown $5,750| 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | Bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “The BTCUSDSHORT chart just entered extreme over bought zones and is going for a re test of the all time high. Combined with the funding rates being abnormally high (longs receive 0.1328%) is a strong indication that we should get a squeeze sooner rather than later.” / Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R = $6,542 | S = $6,282
BTCUSDSHORTS: Very surprised to see that this hasn’t pulled back with the price. Would indicate that squeeze hasn’t started yet. 41% long: 59% short
Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0732
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference):
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = - 6.77% | 128 = -14.22%
Volume: Significant daily volume on this move w/o short sellers pulling back surprises me
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,590
Candlestick analysis: Bounced off dragonfly. Long wick on top of current candle could create a very bearish look.
Ichimoku Cloud: will be apart of resistance cluster at $6,800. Tenken-sen resistance on 12h w c clamp.
TD’ Sequential: G-2 > G-1 on daily with price flip on 12h.
Visible Range: low volume node at $6,600 - $6,800 on most lookback periods (1d - 1m) but the 6 month shows $6,800 as major resistance
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12 = +2.64% | 24 = +6.65% | 1w = -3.91% | 2w = -14.32% | 1m = -2.86%
Bollinger Bands: Bouncing from bottom band, MA currently waits at $7,000
Trendline: Recently broken, puts me on alert for a reversal. Will it retest top of triangle before breaking down on or around 8/25
Daily Trend: bull
Fractals: Down is $5,983. Thought up would print at $6,553 on top of 8/13. Can someone tell me why it didn’t?
On Balance Volume: No div’
ADX: -DI and +DI are converging and ADX is moving upward > 25.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bouncing hard/fast after violating support.
RSI (30 setting): Just broke through resistance
Stoch: Going for 20 retest.
Summary: BTCUSDSHORTS charts and the funding rates strongly indicate the need for a short squeeze. However, other than that everything else I am seeing indicates the need to re test $5,750. I am fully expecting that level of support to breakdown on the next test and that is when the selling volume will increase drastically.
On day 164
“Being -7.63% in relation to the 12 EMA makes me think there is a 75% chance we retest $6,800 - $7,000 before continuing the draw down.”
I wrote that because I fully expected the price to retest the 12 EMA before breaking down $5,750 support. I strongly believe in the theory that major levels of support do not breakdown when the price is already oversold.
We retested it today and are wicking off of it pretty hard. To me that is a strong indication that we are no longer too oversold to breakdown the support. If you are not in a position I believe that shorting alts is the best play.
Interested to see what happens with the stoch as it approaches 20. If it gets rejected there then in would provide confirmation that we are in for a big move to the downside.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/