Bitcoin Potential Bottom and the End of 4 Years Cycle
Hello all, Lets surf the chart!
The bottom is not yet in, no one can argue. Though catching the bottom is not a key here because we can not predict the depth of the decline, to identify the low it is necessary to time the best buy for long term hold (for the x gains) and trade for short term. In short, risk and reward potential.
Time is an important factor which allows me to be a student of cycles especially the one with Bitcoin.
Is it a perfect indicator?
Not perfect but good. Knowing that the Bitcoin cycle started in Dec 2018 lows and confirmed in Feb 2019 gives us the idea that Q4 2022 is the end of BTC 4 Years Cycle and could extend to January 2023. In this range we could expect lows and that buying this dip could be a good risk/reward for the long term.
As bitcoin price starts a steady grind to its new cycle, I will begin to share my ideas as I walk through it. Hope we learn together from here onwards.
Sharing from the chart are scenarios of the different possibilities I am expecting for Bitcoin regardless of the fundamentals and why this level is significant in the upcoming days.
For 20 weeks or so, Bitcoin remains above strong support at 18k to 20k, this is the key level from the 2017 cycle top so it is imperative that the demand in this area is high since it is known that Bitcoin can NEVER go below its all time high.
However, 18k support is broken and price crashes to sub 15k in one day. The probability of going lower is increasing given bitcoin history of 85% - 90% drawdowns which can send it to 10k to 13k area. PLUS the increasing market sentiment, FTX crash, its contagion in the ecosystem and Bitcoin is dead right at the timing band of 4 years cycle lows.
Will it bounce from here?
If we look at 2017 top to bottom (black arrows), it took 52 weeks to complete and then followed by 8 weeks of accumulation before the bounce. Note also is the amount of capitulation in all the lows (red arrows) and it is decreasing as time goes by.
It is in 53 weeks now and considering the above scenarios, two things to expect.
Zooming out the current price action, BTC found support at 15k with daily closing at sub 16k. I expect it to test 18k, a support now turned resistance and if rejected, it will then go back down to 15k and range bound from there.
Above $18200, it's a LONG spot. But if 15k is broken then the continuation of the downtrend is likely to be at 13k to 14k where it could find immediate support in the short term.
This is it for now. Thank you for reading and will update soon. Appreciate the comments, supporting ideas as well as contradicting ideas.
The bottom is not yet in, no one can argue. Though catching the bottom is not a key here because we can not predict the depth of the decline, to identify the low it is necessary to time the best buy for long term hold (for the x gains) and trade for short term. In short, risk and reward potential.
Time is an important factor which allows me to be a student of cycles especially the one with Bitcoin.
Is it a perfect indicator?
Not perfect but good. Knowing that the Bitcoin cycle started in Dec 2018 lows and confirmed in Feb 2019 gives us the idea that Q4 2022 is the end of BTC 4 Years Cycle and could extend to January 2023. In this range we could expect lows and that buying this dip could be a good risk/reward for the long term.
As bitcoin price starts a steady grind to its new cycle, I will begin to share my ideas as I walk through it. Hope we learn together from here onwards.
Sharing from the chart are scenarios of the different possibilities I am expecting for Bitcoin regardless of the fundamentals and why this level is significant in the upcoming days.
For 20 weeks or so, Bitcoin remains above strong support at 18k to 20k, this is the key level from the 2017 cycle top so it is imperative that the demand in this area is high since it is known that Bitcoin can NEVER go below its all time high.
However, 18k support is broken and price crashes to sub 15k in one day. The probability of going lower is increasing given bitcoin history of 85% - 90% drawdowns which can send it to 10k to 13k area. PLUS the increasing market sentiment, FTX crash, its contagion in the ecosystem and Bitcoin is dead right at the timing band of 4 years cycle lows.
Will it bounce from here?
If we look at 2017 top to bottom (black arrows), it took 52 weeks to complete and then followed by 8 weeks of accumulation before the bounce. Note also is the amount of capitulation in all the lows (red arrows) and it is decreasing as time goes by.
It is in 53 weeks now and considering the above scenarios, two things to expect.
Zooming out the current price action, BTC found support at 15k with daily closing at sub 16k. I expect it to test 18k, a support now turned resistance and if rejected, it will then go back down to 15k and range bound from there.
Above $18200, it's a LONG spot. But if 15k is broken then the continuation of the downtrend is likely to be at 13k to 14k where it could find immediate support in the short term.
This is it for now. Thank you for reading and will update soon. Appreciate the comments, supporting ideas as well as contradicting ideas.
It's been 2 weeks since Bitcoin went below 17k and printed fresh lows at 15.4k then remains in there with a clean consolidation. On a weekly still, the selling is absorbed by buying in a steady manner which could be a sign of accumulation happening, a period of slow dry phase until we see a significant buying pressure that could increase price and volume.
Will it go below 15k?
A probability that can't be ignored if support will once again be broken. One thing is clear though, accumulation is happening in this range and that 15k to 10k is the sweetest spot for buyers.
Again, Bitcoin is at a key level here in terms of price and time.