Bitcoin's consolidation phase

It took a nasty move, an exit scam rally (stop hunt) to 12.000 before the correction finally started. Was a nasty move, typical crypto with alts bleeding heavily, once again. Punishing everyone who got in above 11K.

Anyway, the blue line i drew last time, showing a good consolidation for the coming period, might be in play now. So far we have not seen anything severe, since 10K has been holding so far. But can't say it was a sure thing, since crypto has been following the stock market again. While Bitcoin tried to bounce up a bit from the big drop, the stock market kept dropping forcing down Bitcoin. Eventually nothing really bad has happened.

I don't think the low has been set though, even in a bullish scenario for the coming weeks/months, still think we should see one more (shake out) wick below 9900/9800. Ideally not dropping below 9500/400 and bouncing up relativly quickly as well (meaning, dropping to 9500 and same day bouncing back above 9800/10K).

10600 is a clear resistance, think up until 10800, the scenario above could be in play. If we would see a strong push above 10800 coming days, then maybe the correction is already done.

As you know, i always try to compare with past movements, to give you all a picture of what could happen. I think we could compare it with on of these 2 moves. Now obviously, we do not want to see the middle version play out. So where i do think we could see another low again, that low should not be a big drop as half year ago. So half year ago it should have stopped at like 8300/400, which i think is similar to 9300/500 for now.

So in other words, even if we would see another drop soon, we do NOT want it to be a big drop, just a lower low. For the TA people, the low i am describing would give positive divergence.

So, think as long as we keep moving below 10600, chances are very big for this scenario of a lower low. Above 10800 it becomes unlikely. Higher time frame, key levels are around 12.000 and 8800/9000.

Something i mentioned a few weeks ago in, still stands as well:
Long term, don’t know the last time I mentioned it. But ever since the ATH back in 2018, I mentioned that 13k is THE level for me, to even think about being really bullish on bitcoin. In 2019 we had a few attempts even, but the 13.800 high was a failure clearly. So, if we would see a weekly close above 13k, only then will I think about being a long term bull. Back in 2019 I kept saying that the rally went way too fast. Despite the fact that half year ago I would have never guessed we would see the current prices this soon, this whole rally went in a slower pace than 2019, which is in favour of the bulls.

But, when looking at the weekly, we never had a retest of the 10500/10.000 level. Something like the chart below. You can ignore the time frame, drew it on my phone, but idea is taking several months to make sure that neckline we broke around 10k, is solid and can’t break anymore

Previous analysis:


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