As you might remember, since early 2018 I kept saying that the key level to me was around the 13.000. Ever since that period i simply was always somewhat skeptical about any big rally. During the 2019 rally i had several reason for not believing the rally was real. In short, it went way too fast AND it came from a period that the Bitcoin market was extremely weak prior to the rally (the 3K period). This time, there is no ignoring the strength of the rally. It took much more time to get to these levels compared to 2019 and the fundamentals are much better as well.
Now this doesn't necessarily mean we are going up in a straight line, but it does mean the biggest level of the past two and a half year has been broken. Then what does it tell me, that a real bear market has become very unlikely. This is assuming we don't see anything extreme the coming weeks on the downside. Otherwise i would say, even if we would drop towards the 10K/11K, the trend for the coming year or so is still probably upwards. A drop below 10K/9K, would obviously be VERY bad.
About the Alt coin market, i can't really say much yet. It has been clear the past months that alts have been lagging compared to Bitcoin. Especially the past month it was mostly a one man show for Bitcoin. Yes, at any random moment we could see alt rally big and see a catch up compared to Bitcoin, but we could just as easly see alts drop a lot during a stable Bitcoin. To me that's a 50/50 at this point, some alts look pretty decent on the daily chart while others still look pretty bad. So I don't have a strong opinion on Alt's
For now, 2 days ago, I posted the update:
The breakout and upward movement looked pretty decent and strong yesterday. It didn't really pump hard but it was clear that bears also were certainly not able to take control either.
However, starting to feel as if it's taking too long now. It broke the 15.800 resistance, it broke the 16K as well, normally we should have seen a more aggressive and bigger rally.
That's why i am leaning more towards a correction to the downside. That channel you see here, is not an obvious one, but the support line does look to be real. The danger now is, the lower high that might have been set the past hours. If so, if it breaks the 16.100ish, we could see a bigger drop happen. How it will go, that can't say. Usually 2 options, a big fast shake out dump (red line) or the drop, retest and drop some more (blue line). To where the blue line could drop is a matter of wait and see. The levels i mentioned yesterday are still a guideline.
So bulls needs to hold 16.100ish. If this level breaks, we should see a quick drop below 16.000, for the bears preferably even to a minimum of 15.900 at the first stab. If so, the red or blue line will be likely. In other words, if 16.100 breaks and we see slow and small drops, then both the red and blue line are not likely
As we can see, so far it has played out and think for now we can assume the red line version is not in play. Until yesterday it followed the blue line almost perfectly, but the past half day it's moving somewhere in the middle. Looks like a correctional move which suggest another drop is more likely, but i have a feeling we might see a tiny shake out on the upside first before continuing the correction (black line).
Think the levels to watch now are 16.300ish and 16.400 as the key level on the upside. On the downside think 15.900ish is the first support level and 15.800/750 is the first important level. the 15.400/200 zone is the key level i think for the bulls. if that breaks, we could see a test of the 14.500 zone again.
Something important to keep an eye on as well is the US Dollar, that one is at a big support zone now, if that breaks it could drop more which could push Bitcoin up more in USD. But if it holds, there is a potential rally possible which will probably put pressure on the Bitcoin in USD.
Previous analysis:
Now this doesn't necessarily mean we are going up in a straight line, but it does mean the biggest level of the past two and a half year has been broken. Then what does it tell me, that a real bear market has become very unlikely. This is assuming we don't see anything extreme the coming weeks on the downside. Otherwise i would say, even if we would drop towards the 10K/11K, the trend for the coming year or so is still probably upwards. A drop below 10K/9K, would obviously be VERY bad.
About the Alt coin market, i can't really say much yet. It has been clear the past months that alts have been lagging compared to Bitcoin. Especially the past month it was mostly a one man show for Bitcoin. Yes, at any random moment we could see alt rally big and see a catch up compared to Bitcoin, but we could just as easly see alts drop a lot during a stable Bitcoin. To me that's a 50/50 at this point, some alts look pretty decent on the daily chart while others still look pretty bad. So I don't have a strong opinion on Alt's
For now, 2 days ago, I posted the update:
The breakout and upward movement looked pretty decent and strong yesterday. It didn't really pump hard but it was clear that bears also were certainly not able to take control either.
However, starting to feel as if it's taking too long now. It broke the 15.800 resistance, it broke the 16K as well, normally we should have seen a more aggressive and bigger rally.
That's why i am leaning more towards a correction to the downside. That channel you see here, is not an obvious one, but the support line does look to be real. The danger now is, the lower high that might have been set the past hours. If so, if it breaks the 16.100ish, we could see a bigger drop happen. How it will go, that can't say. Usually 2 options, a big fast shake out dump (red line) or the drop, retest and drop some more (blue line). To where the blue line could drop is a matter of wait and see. The levels i mentioned yesterday are still a guideline.
So bulls needs to hold 16.100ish. If this level breaks, we should see a quick drop below 16.000, for the bears preferably even to a minimum of 15.900 at the first stab. If so, the red or blue line will be likely. In other words, if 16.100 breaks and we see slow and small drops, then both the red and blue line are not likely
As we can see, so far it has played out and think for now we can assume the red line version is not in play. Until yesterday it followed the blue line almost perfectly, but the past half day it's moving somewhere in the middle. Looks like a correctional move which suggest another drop is more likely, but i have a feeling we might see a tiny shake out on the upside first before continuing the correction (black line).
Think the levels to watch now are 16.300ish and 16.400 as the key level on the upside. On the downside think 15.900ish is the first support level and 15.800/750 is the first important level. the 15.400/200 zone is the key level i think for the bulls. if that breaks, we could see a test of the 14.500 zone again.
Something important to keep an eye on as well is the US Dollar, that one is at a big support zone now, if that breaks it could drop more which could push Bitcoin up more in USD. But if it holds, there is a potential rally possible which will probably put pressure on the Bitcoin in USD.
Previous analysis:
Comment:
This is maybe my biggest doubt on thinking the correction might already be over. Which is changing that trendline, that would mean we still have the uptrend intact and gives it a 50/50 chance to see a bounce up from that level.
Comment:
When zooming in a bit, we can see it looks like a channel here, with the small range between 16.100/15.900 which could decide what the direction will be for the rest of the day.
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