Yesterday's last update looked pretty amazing with that chart i posted, following it pretty nice, but where i was waiting for that higher low, it simply started to dump in a straight line almost. I lost that chart, but tried to draw it again (left chart) to show what happened since (chart below). As you might remember from my analysis of a few days ago, i mentioned that my focus would be on the orange zone, to wait for that higher low. Yesterday it was already the second attempt i was waiting for that higher low. In the chart on the right i have drawn what should have happened for a lower risk entry. The first time it was almost there, but instead of slowing down it dropped very quickly. Yesterday's attempt was even a bigger failure.
Now this might look complicated of what i am looking for, but it's actually quite simple. What i am looking for, is a higher low AFTER a good push/bounce up from the lows, it usually goes in the shape of an inverse H&S (as i have tried to show in the primary chart above on the right. That is the safer place to wait for when looking for an entry instead of trying to catch the low.
The blue line above is a new line, but it's actually the same idea of the first and second attempt. So now waiting for a touch of at least 18.400ish and then waiting for a retest, making a higher low. Ideally we touch 18.600 again and then drop some. Because if we would touch 18.600, the chances are very high to see it eventually brake (after a possible higher low first).
On the left we can see the daily chart again. The red line version is still in play, but it's not going as i wanted. Because the green daily candle from 2 days ago was pretty bullish, which still held it's value yesterday but with today's drop it's almost invalidated. Think it's important to see it close above 18250/300 today, otherwise it will be guessing, probably even a sign of weakness. That trendline, which i showed earlier this weak, mentioned then as well, they are not my favorite trend lines. This because they give false breaks all the time, but i drew it just to show the possible trend from past month.
I have also added the big triangle on the left, which shows my whole idea for the red line since a week ago. This way it probably makes more sense. Think the triangle resistance is around 19.500, the level i mentioned many times past week, that MUST be touched before i think the 20K will break. That 19.500 touch still goes for the coming week as well.
So it's fair to say, i am still giving a bullish outcome a decent chance here. I am pretty convinced that the trend is bullish, but the problem, that doesn't mean it can't visit 15K or whatever between 13k and 16K. Now i gave bulls a chance few days ago, another one yesterday and it seems today might be the last chance. Because otherwise this triangle version probably becomes to stretched and therefore another drop becomes more likely.
What levels to watch:
In my ETH analysis i mentioned 17.900/850 should be the low for the push up today, which has been holding so far. If that breaks, it becomes tricky for the bulls. Second support is around 17.750. Think this level should be THE max for today, if it breaks, of course the 17.600 is also still there, but i wonder if it will hold a third time.
On the upside, a first resistance is around 18.300, then a big resistance zone around 18.400/500. I think another touch of 18.600, would be a big win for the bulls. All other levels have been mentioned a few times in my previous 2 analysis. 18.900/19.00, then 19.250 and the big one around 19.500.
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Previous analysis:
Now this might look complicated of what i am looking for, but it's actually quite simple. What i am looking for, is a higher low AFTER a good push/bounce up from the lows, it usually goes in the shape of an inverse H&S (as i have tried to show in the primary chart above on the right. That is the safer place to wait for when looking for an entry instead of trying to catch the low.
The blue line above is a new line, but it's actually the same idea of the first and second attempt. So now waiting for a touch of at least 18.400ish and then waiting for a retest, making a higher low. Ideally we touch 18.600 again and then drop some. Because if we would touch 18.600, the chances are very high to see it eventually brake (after a possible higher low first).
On the left we can see the daily chart again. The red line version is still in play, but it's not going as i wanted. Because the green daily candle from 2 days ago was pretty bullish, which still held it's value yesterday but with today's drop it's almost invalidated. Think it's important to see it close above 18250/300 today, otherwise it will be guessing, probably even a sign of weakness. That trendline, which i showed earlier this weak, mentioned then as well, they are not my favorite trend lines. This because they give false breaks all the time, but i drew it just to show the possible trend from past month.
I have also added the big triangle on the left, which shows my whole idea for the red line since a week ago. This way it probably makes more sense. Think the triangle resistance is around 19.500, the level i mentioned many times past week, that MUST be touched before i think the 20K will break. That 19.500 touch still goes for the coming week as well.
So it's fair to say, i am still giving a bullish outcome a decent chance here. I am pretty convinced that the trend is bullish, but the problem, that doesn't mean it can't visit 15K or whatever between 13k and 16K. Now i gave bulls a chance few days ago, another one yesterday and it seems today might be the last chance. Because otherwise this triangle version probably becomes to stretched and therefore another drop becomes more likely.
What levels to watch:
In my ETH analysis i mentioned 17.900/850 should be the low for the push up today, which has been holding so far. If that breaks, it becomes tricky for the bulls. Second support is around 17.750. Think this level should be THE max for today, if it breaks, of course the 17.600 is also still there, but i wonder if it will hold a third time.
On the upside, a first resistance is around 18.300, then a big resistance zone around 18.400/500. I think another touch of 18.600, would be a big win for the bulls. All other levels have been mentioned a few times in my previous 2 analysis. 18.900/19.00, then 19.250 and the big one around 19.500.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Comment:
Extra Bitcoin update i posted earlier today:
Comment:
Again a bearish wedge, number 4 past week and a half. 18.000 is the wedge support, if 17.900/850 breaks, it could test the lows again. This doesnt have to be doomsday if it happens, because Bitcoin still has that backup plan (double bottom) of that other analysis i posted earlier today, the "fractal". But means it should stay above 17.700ish i think, otherwise it becomes guessing.
That higher idea still stands, so even if we drop and bounce back up, then the safe play is still to wait for that higher low.
That higher idea still stands, so even if we drop and bounce back up, then the safe play is still to wait for that higher low.
Comment:
This was some weird shit past hour or so. XRP was dumping 10/15% within minutes while Bitcoin was pretty stable. XRP extremely volatile within that range as well. More factors as well about XRP, but too much to mention. Now i don't know if that influenced the rest of the market.
For Bitcoin, its at the high of the wedge again, think a good push up could invalidate the wedge. Also against this resistance line, if this line is real, it should make a decent jump up when it breaks. So should get an answer, is this trend line what we should watch or the wedge
For Bitcoin, its at the high of the wedge again, think a good push up could invalidate the wedge. Also against this resistance line, if this line is real, it should make a decent jump up when it breaks. So should get an answer, is this trend line what we should watch or the wedge
Comment:
Broke up, now important to see it hold that green support. Now you might be able to see what i meant earlier with inverse H&S. If Bitcoin can touch 18.400/500, then chances increase a lot that it goes up more this weekend.
Feel so dumb, seems XRP had an airdrop (SPARK), i wasn't aware of it. Seems that caused all the weird movement there.
Feel so dumb, seems XRP had an airdrop (SPARK), i wasn't aware of it. Seems that caused all the weird movement there.
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