Ethereum ETH, The 550 - 620 Range, Part 3

ETH was testing the bulls patience, just like with Bitcoin, doing a full pullback towards the lows again to test if that support would hold. All this instead of making a higher low, because the 550/447 broke a second time, the level i said must hold to form that higher low.
Another thing to remember, is that black trend line on the left. The same line as Bitcoin has, of which for both of them i mentioned upfront that i don't like these kind of lines. Well, think now we can see why i don't like them, they produce a lot of false signals and in hindsight one keeps adjusting these lines. I have build my own theory on this, which i have mentioned several times the past years here on TradingView. In short, that theory is: Book, chapter, paragraph etc..

Anyway, the last update i did in my previous ETH analysis played out pretty nicely after the curved line broke:

-Simply break it and pump big.
-Break it, rally a bit and retest before the big pump (blue line), Important here is, has to go sideways for a limited period of time, would say like max 1 day.
-Break it, doing weak attempts to break up but eventually go sideways for a while (so longer than the 1 day ish). Then if the breakout fails, should see a big dump happen.


The sideways part took around 12/16 hours, which fit that picture, together with the resistance levels of which each of them caused a temporarily pause/correction to the rally.

On the left we can see that ETH broke that big channel with some conviction, but no big volume. This suggests, that it might take some more time before ETH makes another significant rally. Tricky part now is, will it make a correction from here (already pumped quite a bit) or will it push towards the 600 and then make a correction. It could, but i don't think the 590/605 zone will break easily. So think we will see some sideways action before it really breaks.

What do the bulls want to see? Ideally see one more push towards the 600, that red zone, from that level start something like the blue line ( a bull flag or something). Since we have a possible triangle (similar to Bitcoin). So if we see what i just described, then a breakout to test the 620 zone and then again sideways to complete the triangle to eventually break up. So this would be the ideal version.
What if it fails to reach 600 today? Think a max drop to around 580, anything lower isn't bearish right away, but it will get more dangerous.

What do bears need? First of all, they want to see a touch of 600/605, because if that gets touched, i think it's a matter of time until it will break coming week. So they want to see a drop towards the 580 and then see an H&S form there. 570ish is a support that they need to see break as well. 550ish is probably the key level, but i think that the 560ish is probably already a confirmation of a failure of this bullish attempt to form that triangle.




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