Hello everyone. Following the Elliott wave count, I am still expecting one more drop (sub-wave 5 of wave C, the capitulation wave). This could also be considered the spring test in Wickhoff Theory (I'm not an expert, but communicate with one that is).
It's clear, there are plenty that are expecting a new bottom, and it is also clear the market has gone (bullish) mad with just a $700 rise! We must consider this sentiment. These feelings are forces to be reckoned with, and so neither the bull or the bear will just sit back and allow the other to win. What I'm trying to say is that it's not going to be easy for the bears to get this much lower, as in sub $2900. It's not impossible, and that's easily proven by how deep they were able to take it back in November from $6k to $3k, cutting through all support like nothing. But now we are in a new layer of trader ... as we dig deeper into the price, we deal with stronger Hodlers, people who have dealt with BTC for over one year or longer. They were either smart enough to not get burned in the bear market (the 20%) or they have lost almost everything and don't really care at this stage if it goes down further, they are committed to holding (most of the 80%?).
So, I print this potential pattern ... let's see if this triangle wave unfolds. This would be sub-wave 4 ... and then a final sub-wave 5 down to 29XX?? ... or will the bulls hold the line at 31XX ... or will the bears break their spirit and take it to 1300 - 1800 territory? Right now, if I was forced to choose, I'd say 29XX to 31XX will be held. That will be a fairly bullish sign for me and then it would likely only be a matter of time before we (slowly) start our new bull run.
Let's analyze this triangle ... it seems we have topped out now. Bears will likely take advantage of that red candle on the daily. Finex longs have closed out drastically, which means the market generally thinks it's the top ... however, there's another point there ... the bears won't be able to stop hunt much, because longs have closed out in droves. I print wave D hitting the bottom of the ichi cloud and finding support. Then wave E tops out about where the ichi cloud twists on March 18th ... the ichi twist has almost always predicted a top or a bottom. The last one a few days back, proved to be a local bottom before we had that nice pump up to $4k.
Let's see how this plays out.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for trading, investment, or financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
It's clear, there are plenty that are expecting a new bottom, and it is also clear the market has gone (bullish) mad with just a $700 rise! We must consider this sentiment. These feelings are forces to be reckoned with, and so neither the bull or the bear will just sit back and allow the other to win. What I'm trying to say is that it's not going to be easy for the bears to get this much lower, as in sub $2900. It's not impossible, and that's easily proven by how deep they were able to take it back in November from $6k to $3k, cutting through all support like nothing. But now we are in a new layer of trader ... as we dig deeper into the price, we deal with stronger Hodlers, people who have dealt with BTC for over one year or longer. They were either smart enough to not get burned in the bear market (the 20%) or they have lost almost everything and don't really care at this stage if it goes down further, they are committed to holding (most of the 80%?).
So, I print this potential pattern ... let's see if this triangle wave unfolds. This would be sub-wave 4 ... and then a final sub-wave 5 down to 29XX?? ... or will the bulls hold the line at 31XX ... or will the bears break their spirit and take it to 1300 - 1800 territory? Right now, if I was forced to choose, I'd say 29XX to 31XX will be held. That will be a fairly bullish sign for me and then it would likely only be a matter of time before we (slowly) start our new bull run.
Let's analyze this triangle ... it seems we have topped out now. Bears will likely take advantage of that red candle on the daily. Finex longs have closed out drastically, which means the market generally thinks it's the top ... however, there's another point there ... the bears won't be able to stop hunt much, because longs have closed out in droves. I print wave D hitting the bottom of the ichi cloud and finding support. Then wave E tops out about where the ichi cloud twists on March 18th ... the ichi twist has almost always predicted a top or a bottom. The last one a few days back, proved to be a local bottom before we had that nice pump up to $4k.
Let's see how this plays out.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for trading, investment, or financial decisions. For educational purposes only.