I feel like this would be a great spot for a potential end to the current correction. It is a convergence of two major trend lines. The green trendline being the top trendline of the wedge we broke out of a few weeks ago and the brown line being the bottom trendline of the channel we’ve been in forever now. Price action loves to retest the top trendline of a wedge after breaking above it before fully validating the breakout and has yet to do that on the weekly chart here so what better spot for it to retest that trendline than where it overlaps this other trendline that has been proven to be huge support time and time again. If we do confirm the breakout there are 2 potential measured move targets. Both targets depend on which bottom trendline of the wedge is most valid. The other lower green trendline, or the pink trendline. If the pink trendline is the more valid then we have a higher potential measured move target. The green one appears to have slightly more key touches but the pink one creates a shorter wedge and the point of breakout from the price action makes more sense in the shorter wedge as opposed to the longer wedge in which it feels like the breakout would be occurring far earlier than normal. Also if the pink line is the more valid bottom trendline, we can see its measured move target would take us exactly up to the top brown ascending trendline (aka top trendline of the brown rising channel) if price action were to reach the target at the same time the pink dotted measured move line’s trajectory does. That’s added bullish confluence that helps to increase the probability that the pink trendline could be the more valid of the two bottom trendline to the falling wedge. I would definitely prefer the pink line to be the more valid since it has the higher breakout target. Of course, as always there’s always the chance these patterns could break downward and confirm a bear market. I would still be leaning bullish myself until I saw a lower low formed as well as a weekly close or 2 below the bottom brown trendline though. *not financial advice*
Comment:
One last scenario worth mentioning since I mainly posted the bullish outcome, I think it’s also fair to post the bearish outcome as well here. Let’s say worst case scenario happens and it does create a lower low. In my opinion that is what will end it ably confirm a bear market. We can see the smaller purple rising channel here, this purple rising channel if the bears have indeed seized control of the larger macro scale timeframes, could be the flag portion of a bear flag. If this is true and the flag breaks down the measured move target would be around 20k. This may seem like a scary scenario but in my opinion if a bear market were to be confirmed the bear market bottom at the lowest would be around 14-20k. Also, if it went to those prices price action would still likely be inside the longer falling wedge and it could still inevitably end up breaking upward from the wedge after reaching such prices, which means….if a bear market is confirmed it will likely be over not long after that confirmation and just end up being a massive discount for us all, before it flips back into a bull market once again. So even in the bearish case scenario it seems we would likely resume the bull trend very quickly. Unless of course we had an ultimate btc bubble pop. I don’t think the btc bubble will have its final pop in the near future. However it wouldn’t surprise me if something like tether had its ultimate bubble pop sometime soon which is the type of event that could rationalize a dip as low as 14-20k imo worst case scenario. However btc could survive that simply by having a new stable coin become the new default peg to replace tether. For now, until I see a lower low confirmed on the macro, I’m leaning more towards just continuing the bull phase. *again not financial advice*
Comment:
We technically already retested the top trendline of the wedge as support after breaking up from it on thev 1 day time frame…so it is possible we won’t need to also retest it here on the weekly chart.