Happy anniversary! 2 years since BTC peaked & since I joined.
It has now been exactly 2 years since Bitcoin reached its all time high, nearly 20k. I also joined tradingview on that day.
Couldn't miss risking a single crumb of the now 2 years long bear market and hopefully many more years of it to come :)
I am happy my anniversary is the same day as Bitcoin long term bear market birth.
It is a good time for me to update on the "ridiculous troll" parabola prediction I made 1 and a half year ago:
Going the predicted direction for now...
Bitcoin baghodlers do not have great foresight. They get excited and see bull markets all the time.
You're not expected to predict everything all the time but you shouldn't be wrong all the time or almost all the time.
The sooner they realize this is not a line of activity for them, the better.
There are so many other things to do... Try everything until you find something you're decent at.
They got so excited by cryptos going up alot and seeing really stupid & ignorant people become rich with no effort no hard thinking no nothing,
that I think they will require a long time to let go of their dream. What a dream... becoming rich by doing nothing just being lucky. No being the best or anything.
They think money is candy and it gets their dopamine receptors excited I guess...
In early 2018 I think what I said was it would be 5 years before Bitcoin has a new long term bull market, if it ever gets one.
I expected a big 6 months to 1 year bull market, 2019 3000->13900 was it. I am certain the next rallies will be smaller (on the linear chart).
As a currency Bitcoin and even other cryptos are really bad. As a store of value there are really bad. They have some plus, the community is still looking for a use case.
I wrote about this but none of the Bitcoin baghodling warriors care because all they care about is the price of their lottery ticket.
A crypto that has fair value over time (means it can inflate and deflate) could be a currency of the internet, for micro transactions maybe.
Could be quite convenient.
Bitcoin was created as a response to central banks games, and to the 2007-2009 financial crisis scandal, it's a bad answer that creates more problems that it solves but it brought some new ideas and got some people interested about the subject (maybe 0.1% with 99.9% only care about the lottery ticket price and didn't care to look into it).
Decentralization sucks, and so does centralization.
I strongly believe (know) the optimal strategy is always hybrid.
The USA are 50 (56+) separate states/countries with their own laws that are allied under a single federal government.
They constantly look for the optimal separation of power: What should the federal government decide? What should the state decide?
And they went from a wild dump to the greatest nation in the world in like a century and they still are number 1.
Even UK, largest most powerful empire of all time has this: an Union around england the large one in the center, with scotland wales ireland in it + the colonies overseas. Back in the 18th 19th century 5% of the world population lived in Great Britain (the island not the whole thing) just like the USA today, 5% also. And this is enough to control the world pretty much.
The soviet union was very centralized: government controlled everything, and it kept failing so they had to bring back private ownership over and over all of the 20th century, somewhere around 1950 the CCCP was the country where inheritance was the most "capitalist" in the world, which is ridiculous.
China is a cancer communist dictatorship but I like how they do things (and maybe you need a dictatorship to run a 2 billion people country): They got this communist main country where it's all "for the people" and they are anti business and all, BUT it's all a lie because they have dozens of "special economic zones" - the most famous one is Hong Kong but this one is a little different - these zones are a no law area where capitalists can be as ruthless as they want. And while communist china has 45% tax on the rich (top bracket), special economic zones have much lower taxes, HKG got 16%. Nice socialism guys, good one. They want to build a SEZ on the moon btw, I like that too.
And the government is also split in various independant branches.
They mix centralization and decentralization which allowed them to have a big economic growth and a big growing middle class.
Big companies all have a CEO and board of directors and then divides into branches separate from each other, this is what works best.
I could go on with examples but anyway, it's over for Bitcoin. IT. IS. BAD. VERY BAD.
The next big thing if there is a future for crypto will be the project that manages to improve on currencies and solves some problems, without creating new ones or going back in the past.
They're going to have to go for something scalable to transaction volume and to inflation/gdp, and someone has to figure out going into the extreme of lawless decentralization is childish. The future is hybrid.
The crypto king is dead. Long live the (future) crypto king.
Couldn't miss risking a single crumb of the now 2 years long bear market and hopefully many more years of it to come :)
I am happy my anniversary is the same day as Bitcoin long term bear market birth.
It is a good time for me to update on the "ridiculous troll" parabola prediction I made 1 and a half year ago:
Going the predicted direction for now...
Bitcoin baghodlers do not have great foresight. They get excited and see bull markets all the time.
You're not expected to predict everything all the time but you shouldn't be wrong all the time or almost all the time.
The sooner they realize this is not a line of activity for them, the better.
There are so many other things to do... Try everything until you find something you're decent at.
They got so excited by cryptos going up alot and seeing really stupid & ignorant people become rich with no effort no hard thinking no nothing,
that I think they will require a long time to let go of their dream. What a dream... becoming rich by doing nothing just being lucky. No being the best or anything.
They think money is candy and it gets their dopamine receptors excited I guess...
In early 2018 I think what I said was it would be 5 years before Bitcoin has a new long term bull market, if it ever gets one.
I expected a big 6 months to 1 year bull market, 2019 3000->13900 was it. I am certain the next rallies will be smaller (on the linear chart).
As a currency Bitcoin and even other cryptos are really bad. As a store of value there are really bad. They have some plus, the community is still looking for a use case.
I wrote about this but none of the Bitcoin baghodling warriors care because all they care about is the price of their lottery ticket.
A crypto that has fair value over time (means it can inflate and deflate) could be a currency of the internet, for micro transactions maybe.
Could be quite convenient.
Bitcoin was created as a response to central banks games, and to the 2007-2009 financial crisis scandal, it's a bad answer that creates more problems that it solves but it brought some new ideas and got some people interested about the subject (maybe 0.1% with 99.9% only care about the lottery ticket price and didn't care to look into it).
Decentralization sucks, and so does centralization.
I strongly believe (know) the optimal strategy is always hybrid.
The USA are 50 (56+) separate states/countries with their own laws that are allied under a single federal government.
They constantly look for the optimal separation of power: What should the federal government decide? What should the state decide?
And they went from a wild dump to the greatest nation in the world in like a century and they still are number 1.
Even UK, largest most powerful empire of all time has this: an Union around england the large one in the center, with scotland wales ireland in it + the colonies overseas. Back in the 18th 19th century 5% of the world population lived in Great Britain (the island not the whole thing) just like the USA today, 5% also. And this is enough to control the world pretty much.
The soviet union was very centralized: government controlled everything, and it kept failing so they had to bring back private ownership over and over all of the 20th century, somewhere around 1950 the CCCP was the country where inheritance was the most "capitalist" in the world, which is ridiculous.
China is a cancer communist dictatorship but I like how they do things (and maybe you need a dictatorship to run a 2 billion people country): They got this communist main country where it's all "for the people" and they are anti business and all, BUT it's all a lie because they have dozens of "special economic zones" - the most famous one is Hong Kong but this one is a little different - these zones are a no law area where capitalists can be as ruthless as they want. And while communist china has 45% tax on the rich (top bracket), special economic zones have much lower taxes, HKG got 16%. Nice socialism guys, good one. They want to build a SEZ on the moon btw, I like that too.
And the government is also split in various independant branches.
They mix centralization and decentralization which allowed them to have a big economic growth and a big growing middle class.
Big companies all have a CEO and board of directors and then divides into branches separate from each other, this is what works best.
I could go on with examples but anyway, it's over for Bitcoin. IT. IS. BAD. VERY BAD.
The next big thing if there is a future for crypto will be the project that manages to improve on currencies and solves some problems, without creating new ones or going back in the past.
They're going to have to go for something scalable to transaction volume and to inflation/gdp, and someone has to figure out going into the extreme of lawless decentralization is childish. The future is hybrid.
The crypto king is dead. Long live the (future) crypto king.
Comment:
Merry christmas!
Comment:
And happy new year!
Crypto participants still massively bullish.
Isn't 2020 the year where Satoshis sell their BTC?
Let's see if that happens, or if it does not what excuse they come up with.
Crypto participants still massively bullish.
Isn't 2020 the year where Satoshis sell their BTC?
Let's see if that happens, or if it does not what excuse they come up with.
Comment:
Still in a channel
I see these steps in the next year:
Step 1- The Halving
Step 2- The Price Halving
Step 3- The Humbling
I see these steps in the next year:
Step 1- The Halving
Step 2- The Price Halving
Step 3- The Humbling
