CarpeMomentum

Bitcoin Phoenix from Ashes One more Time after $40k burn

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Scared? Nervous? Waiting for Elon's next tweet? Need some good news in all this downtrend crypto market?
Every time the market does crazy stuff I head to my technical analysis to kind of make sense and look at the big picture.
The question that comes to mind is if this was it and the 2021 Bitcoin bull cycle has come to an end or how much lower will Bitcoin correct?

I believe the answer to the first question is no we have not seen the market top. We are far away from the stock-to-flow predictive targets and Bitcoin and the market have one last crazy push in store for us.
Bitcoin is in a very, let's say dangerous territory. The Bollinger baseline (red line in the middle of the Bollinger upper and lower band) has been breached.
That is a strong signal of weakness. Time to compare with prior Bitcoin cycles.

You will notice that Bitcoin does touch or even break the Bollinger baseline (see 2013 cycle).
There is one thing it does not break below while still in a bull cycle and that is the 200 day moving average.
Looking at the 2013 it come close end of June 2013, but bounced back (for a closer look at this here: www.tradingview.com/...jecting-2021-Target/)
In the 2017 cycle it never really gotten close to the 200 day moving average and the worse drop was to the Bollinger baseline in July 2017.

Looking back at the current downtrend Bitcoin has come close to touching the 200 days moving average.
$40k appears a maximum downward basement level just above the average.
This is about another 10% drop from where we are today. All the sellers need to be careful not to drop Bitcoin below this mark or we are truly in a bad spot for the market.

So there is some more potential for downward movement and sideways movement for a couple of weeks.
Bitcoin has clearly been burning down from the massive and very confident strong move up until about February 2021.
Ever since the Bitcoin engines have turned off and on with no real confidence.
Clearly these last couple of days Bitcoin has taken a crash landing and is burning to ashes - out of which one more time Bitcoin Phoenix will rise.

You may look at the current price levels in Bitcoin and the market overall as a discount opportunity.
As always make sure to set those stop-loss orders to avoid getting burnt ;)

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