$250K Maximum for BTC in 2021 - A logarithmic growth view on BTC
Inspired by Nicholas Merten's (DataDash) recent posts on Youtube I thought I would test his thesis whether or not Bitcoin will experience a logarithmic growth ceiling at $70k.
Nicholas analysis has him believe Bitcoin will experience a drop here in the near future and down and sideward movement to then later break the logarithmic ceiling he perceives.
So I drew out logarithmic growth curves and adjusted them for the stock to flow targets of $100k and $1mn in the future.
What do we see now?
A) there does not appear to be a short term limit as to the growth of Bitcoin above $70k, while I would agree the steady monthly growth screams for a bit of a correction in April
B) There seems to be a limit of around $250K in August 2021. That would be my crazy number then. Higher is unlikely (while possible).
C) One can nicely see the black swan event in March 2020 with the Covid-19 market dip. This is a warning of anything that may hit us in fall this year if the economies go sour because of more lockdowns.
D) There seems to be big dips around the 50% fib. log line, so we could well be due for a correction
Overall, it is more and more difficult to predict the next moves. I would speculate and say Bitcoin may dip its toes above the last ATH and maybe reach $65k before we see a retracement to $45k over 3-4 weeks.
After that the last leg of the bull cycle will kick off and that is when you want to be prepared to step out of the market early enough before prices will plummet.
Altcoins will in parallel kick off their last burst of flames in growth before they will also collapse.
So pick your horses and know when to jump off.
Overall I would still be long on BTC, while very cautious right now. BTC is not showing strength right now and there is a lot of institutional interest and players joining the game, making the market prone for, well let's say, whale watching.
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
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Nicholas analysis has him believe Bitcoin will experience a drop here in the near future and down and sideward movement to then later break the logarithmic ceiling he perceives.
So I drew out logarithmic growth curves and adjusted them for the stock to flow targets of $100k and $1mn in the future.
What do we see now?
A) there does not appear to be a short term limit as to the growth of Bitcoin above $70k, while I would agree the steady monthly growth screams for a bit of a correction in April
B) There seems to be a limit of around $250K in August 2021. That would be my crazy number then. Higher is unlikely (while possible).
C) One can nicely see the black swan event in March 2020 with the Covid-19 market dip. This is a warning of anything that may hit us in fall this year if the economies go sour because of more lockdowns.
D) There seems to be big dips around the 50% fib. log line, so we could well be due for a correction
Overall, it is more and more difficult to predict the next moves. I would speculate and say Bitcoin may dip its toes above the last ATH and maybe reach $65k before we see a retracement to $45k over 3-4 weeks.
After that the last leg of the bull cycle will kick off and that is when you want to be prepared to step out of the market early enough before prices will plummet.
Altcoins will in parallel kick off their last burst of flames in growth before they will also collapse.
So pick your horses and know when to jump off.
Overall I would still be long on BTC, while very cautious right now. BTC is not showing strength right now and there is a lot of institutional interest and players joining the game, making the market prone for, well let's say, whale watching.
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
