Bitcoin Fake or Real Bullish Wedge, Part 3

Crap, wrote whole story and accidentally deleted it, i F hate when that happens.

In short:

Bitcoin did a small bull trap with that failing inverse H&S. While ETH never broke that red resistance and seems to be completing a bearish H&S. So it seems as if ETH might even be more important to follow here. If ETH touches 236ish, good chance we see more downward movement. That would also mean that Bitcoin should break that channel i talked about yesterday.

If Bitcoin stays below the 9250/70 resistance, bears are in favor. Above it things become more random. As long as we stay below that resistance, i think good chance we make a drop and break that channel, but important to see a lower high form.

Even if we drop, as we have seen countless times past months, that thick black line needs to break. As long those don't break, bulls have always taken over again. I have not double checked it, but think that bulls have never failed in holding these hidden support lines (which usually turn into wedges).

So in case we drop, if we see something like the blue line, so a small lower volume drop, big chance it will go up again. Bears want to see the red line, so a bigger drop, touching 8900ish again. If that happens, would mean that thick black line fails for the first time and therefore should mean a change in the market, at least for the short term. Also, if 8900ish gets touched once again, also very big chance it will break.

Also another reason why at this point i favor a drop (assuming we stay below 9300, above it things change a bit again), is the fact that Thursday Bitocin dropped quite a bit when the Dow dropped. But the Dow went up almost 80% again and Bitcoin couldn't even get half way. So would say, seems as if Bitcoin didn't plan to go up.

Now as long as we don't have a daily close below 8900 or above 9700/800, things can continue to get random.

Chart below might give more insight as well. The green line shows higher lows inside this consolidation, if that pattern breaks, won't yet be super bearish but of course is a first weakness. That blue line in this chart is maybe the most important line to watch as long as we stay in this consolidation. At the moment it's around 8700, so anything above that zone, could mean bulls could still take over.

In each bearish scenario, assumption is still a big correction until we resume the bullish trend again, this could happen up until 7500ish. But, if at some point, we see a 1000+ point drop with high volume, it could mean a trend change, meaning the past months was just one big bull trap, once again.



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Previous analysis:

Comment:

New ETH analysis:

Comment:

One correctional move after the other, most frustrating setup to TA or to trade. For the ones who don't understand or realize what that means. Correctional moves cross important support/resistance level only to cross them again and again. Where during a trend move, those get let behind and can act as a reference level. Why things on the low time frame are so difficult lately. Of course typical for a consolidation.

Anyway, now it looks like we have a small triangle. Now it looks as if the range is 9300-9200. So a break of one of those should give follow through.

If 9200ish breaks, should mean that channel in the middle chart above, would break on the downside and we should see more downwards price movement. If break up above 9300, there is resistance around 9370/400. Above that, could go to the upside of that channel, which is around 9550.