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BITCOIN Will this Channel hold? And what if it doesn't?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The current decline has put second thoughts on many Bitcoin buyers and rightly so. As with the November 25/26 decline, the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has supported since Nov 29. Also as with the November decline, it also touched the Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up.


** The Channel Up **
However this time by hitting the Higher Low line, it also (almost) made contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). That was the first time since October 08 that contact is made with the 4H MA200. Technically, with the Channel Up being very consistent since November 05 with its High, Low and middle trend-lines, we should consider this as a very strong Support for BTC and a potential rebound point. The next Higher High is placed just above $21000.


** The Inverted Head & Shoulders **
But what if the Channel Up and 4H MA200 doesn't hold? Well the decline since the November 30 top, appears to be symmetrical (so far) with the Nov 05 - 25 rise. That being a mirror image/ the inverse sequence. Those tho sequences (Channels technically) could be the Left and Right Shoulder respectively of an Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. With the Nov 26/27 being the Head. So assuming the Channel Up breaks, the Right Shoulder of the IH&S can take BTCUSD as low as the $16200 - 16000 region. With the RSI (on the 4H chart) being on a Channel Down ( bearish divergence) since November 05 (matching exactly the Channel Up of the price action), this is certainly possible.


What do you think? Will today's low hold, make a Higher Low on the 4H MA200 and start a new strong rebound? Or we'll re-test the low 16000s? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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Comments

all channels in terms of fib ratios based on bone structure of the fractal
+9 Reply
@fract, Very interesting!
Reply
I think a retest of previous support at 18.6k is near.. if it fails we may see another leg down, otherwise we're on the way to 20k and new ATH
+8 Reply
TradingShot zeph1ro7
@zeph1ro7, Correct.
+1 Reply
I just think it’s sad that this entire prevention of Bitcoin carrying on, is due to the sole greed of the community, in that it feels entitled to another chance at cheap coin, miners and hodlr’s alike, are seeking to enjoy another ride up and down, absorbing the fresh influx of capital, not of their own, to position themselves for the inevitable.
It was one thing when a few weeks ago, when legitimately it was challenging for Hodlr’s, and those otherwise that have experienced previous reversals such as in 2018, that were subsequently weary of it’s prospective pattern. But, upon all of the bullish sentiment Bitcoin has presented recently, especially in light of Micro Systems, doubling down, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s plans, it is unarguable, that Bitcoin had not revealed an intended direction.
But instead we chose to manipulate her.
This blatant manipulation, is observed, and though Bitcoin’s long-term positioning is secure, the community has has not made any friends. And it won’t take too long for anyone to see what I mean. For a long time, Hodlr’s have enjoyed the positioning of whale’s and market makers makers, there is a new beast in the sea, much more powerful than anything they have ever considered the influence of. I believe the current bulls will get along just fine eventually with this new energy, but those whose intentions aren’t aligned, that believe they will carry-on per usual, will be swallowed whole.
+7 Reply
TradingShot johnmcal3
@johnmcal3, Couldn't have said it better myself! I wish I could pin this message at the top of the comments section!
Reply
Hey TS... good observations as always my BTC friend! That 4H MA200 is around 17,500 right now. We may see it drop through that slightly. On the 1D the lower BB is around 17,300, just below that we have the 0.786 autofib at 16,995, and then just below that there's the 1D MA50 at around 16,300 and it's almost coinciding right now with the 1.0 autofib level at 16,200. I'd there have to say there is a very high probability that the support on this retracement will probably fall somewhere between the 16,200 and 17,300 level, all of which are below that 4H MA200. I'd be a bit surprised though to see it head down further than that given the large number of support indicators there in that range and the current influx of money into BTC from larger institutional and wealthier persons.
+7 Reply
TradingShot cosmicnexus
@cosmicnexus, Well said Nex 16200 - 16000 is indeed the Support level to watch. What November 27 showed us is that there is a lot of demand and frankly it seems that every 15-20% drop will be immediately bought from now on.
Reply
Right now it is retesting the 18.5k area, if it couldn't break it, then I think around 16.3k will be the next support. If can pass 18.5k area, will go to the 20k probably.
+5 Reply