Take look at part 1 first below :
Bitcoin is starting to make big moves and even though I think we have seen this move mostly play out already , this is only the beginning of a much larger shift to the upside.
Last TA I presented this Bitcoin model with time markers showing that the cycle is in fact repeating in time and patterns , this analysis will be going over what could happen the rest of the year if we carry on mirroring.
If we take a look at the main chart we can see that Bitcoin is printing a weekly candle very similar to 2019 after the cycle low was in.
The question is now if this is the start of a relief rally then where does it top out? This is where we will be using the Gann Fan , for price to reach all time high again price must break the last Gann band which is marked as 8/1.
Last cycle we had a perfect 8/1 hit at 14k that signalled the top of the relief rally at 13.8k and once we broke the 8/1 Gann years later the bull market started.
So if the cycle keeps mirroring we have a top somewhere between 4/1 or 8/1 which would be anything from 38k-51k Bitcoin. The rally will only last about 140-160 days this time estimate based on previous cycles , so would put a top sometime late June 2023.
That's it folks 140 days you have because if we get close to the 8/1 Gann come June 2023 and we start getting divergence , I will be extremely bearish, that will confirm to me that there is a very high chance we have a second capitulation event that marks Bitcoin signature marco double bottom.
Bitcoin always puts in a double bottom before hitting all time highs and they always happen around Halving , sometimes it's before , sometimes it's after but it happens every cycle.
Sometime between November 2023 and the next Halving which is in March 2024 we could expect a big crash that takes out all the way back down to 15.5k , it is at this moment which I will flip extremely bullish and go all in.
So now we go over the most important piece of evidence that we have , the USDT dominance chart :
This chart has been amazing in 2022 catching all the big moves in the market and all year I have been waiting for this marco (White)support line to break.
It finally broke and this is the primary reason why this pump is not like the rest and why you should be paying attention because it's time to prepare.
At the bottom of this marco channel we find Bitcoin tops and at top of it we find Bitcoin bottoms , we have never closed out of this channel , in June and Nov 2022 there were two major crashes in Bitcoin and the USDT dominance hit exactly the same level and never closed out of the channel.
These are the facts , this channel is golden , using this macro and micro channel we know where we are in the cycle and what moves are coming next.
Last TA we knew that the chances were very high of a upside move based on the rising wedge that USDT D was in .
Rising wedge broke and Bitcoin shot up , USDT D one step ahead time and time again.
This is why I said at the start this move is most likely done because we reached the bottom of this micro channel .
This micro channel is where Bitcoin likes to form a base and consolidate before a much larger move , which could take anything between 30-45 days.
So is anybody ready for a move to 48k? I don't think so most of the market is in disbelief with nearly 1 billion dollars in short liquidations.
Since I got into this space it has been "over" for Bitcoin more times than I can count and every single time Bitcoin finds a way to shock you and fight back , this cycle it will be no different.
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. Their massive overhead costs make micropayments impossible"
Satoshi Nakamoto
Bitcoin is starting to make big moves and even though I think we have seen this move mostly play out already , this is only the beginning of a much larger shift to the upside.
Last TA I presented this Bitcoin model with time markers showing that the cycle is in fact repeating in time and patterns , this analysis will be going over what could happen the rest of the year if we carry on mirroring.
If we take a look at the main chart we can see that Bitcoin is printing a weekly candle very similar to 2019 after the cycle low was in.
The question is now if this is the start of a relief rally then where does it top out? This is where we will be using the Gann Fan , for price to reach all time high again price must break the last Gann band which is marked as 8/1.
Last cycle we had a perfect 8/1 hit at 14k that signalled the top of the relief rally at 13.8k and once we broke the 8/1 Gann years later the bull market started.
So if the cycle keeps mirroring we have a top somewhere between 4/1 or 8/1 which would be anything from 38k-51k Bitcoin. The rally will only last about 140-160 days this time estimate based on previous cycles , so would put a top sometime late June 2023.
That's it folks 140 days you have because if we get close to the 8/1 Gann come June 2023 and we start getting divergence , I will be extremely bearish, that will confirm to me that there is a very high chance we have a second capitulation event that marks Bitcoin signature marco double bottom.
Bitcoin always puts in a double bottom before hitting all time highs and they always happen around Halving , sometimes it's before , sometimes it's after but it happens every cycle.
Sometime between November 2023 and the next Halving which is in March 2024 we could expect a big crash that takes out all the way back down to 15.5k , it is at this moment which I will flip extremely bullish and go all in.
So now we go over the most important piece of evidence that we have , the USDT dominance chart :
This chart has been amazing in 2022 catching all the big moves in the market and all year I have been waiting for this marco (White)support line to break.
It finally broke and this is the primary reason why this pump is not like the rest and why you should be paying attention because it's time to prepare.
At the bottom of this marco channel we find Bitcoin tops and at top of it we find Bitcoin bottoms , we have never closed out of this channel , in June and Nov 2022 there were two major crashes in Bitcoin and the USDT dominance hit exactly the same level and never closed out of the channel.
These are the facts , this channel is golden , using this macro and micro channel we know where we are in the cycle and what moves are coming next.
Last TA we knew that the chances were very high of a upside move based on the rising wedge that USDT D was in .
Rising wedge broke and Bitcoin shot up , USDT D one step ahead time and time again.
This is why I said at the start this move is most likely done because we reached the bottom of this micro channel .
This micro channel is where Bitcoin likes to form a base and consolidate before a much larger move , which could take anything between 30-45 days.
So is anybody ready for a move to 48k? I don't think so most of the market is in disbelief with nearly 1 billion dollars in short liquidations.
Since I got into this space it has been "over" for Bitcoin more times than I can count and every single time Bitcoin finds a way to shock you and fight back , this cycle it will be no different.
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. Their massive overhead costs make micropayments impossible"
Satoshi Nakamoto
Comment:
As expected price will be moving sideways for a while , the RSI on the daily has hit 88! this is very rare and extremely overbought.
Comment:
Comment:
tick tok
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Have to wait for weekly close to confirm this signal