Possible scenarios for BTC

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
At the moment, 50k-53k is a very critical level for $BTC in order to determine whether or not we'll move into a bull run or not. Another rejection and bobos will have a field day seeing no one happy for Christmas this December.

I've laid out a couple of scenarios for BTC:

Bull case:
-We breach the trendline and make a higher high and complete a wave 3 target toward 100k without retesting the trendline
-The same as above but the trend line gets retested and a new bull trend gets created
-Exchange reserves decreasing significantly ever since the dump from 50k
-New local high on taker buy/sell ratio
-Spot ETF?
-Possibility of other social media platforms following twitter's adoption of BTC and ETH (OF btc donations from simps?)
-Btc volcano mining from El Salvador

Bear case:
-Bitcoin gets rejected at the trendline again increasing the likelihood of a bear market but with a much higher ath potential (300k+?) sometime in 2022 or 2023. I suspect the bottom to be anywhere between 22k-24k. Good time to pick up on alts and accumulate. Doesn't even matter if you are working min. wage at Mcdonald's or Amazon with this scenario, just have cash/stable coins ready to buy the dip, and cash out your 10x-100x ROI .
-Bids at 36k-40k region continuing to reduce whilst under 50k/major trendline, providing an opportunity for a selloff to sub 40k due to lack of support.
-Trusts/Funds selling at a negative premium
-SPX/ CPI wave 5 target
-115% U.S. debt/GDP ratio
-Evergrande situation (tether correlation?)

Overall, wouldn't be surprised if we crabbed for a couple of months maybe even a year until either case becomes more dominant.
Comment: Both triangle and abc waves got eliminated, could see an impulse move to 80k or 180k.
Comment: More bearish cases:
-Global energy shortages
-Shipping backlogs
-Major chip shortage
-Uptick on covid cases heading into flu season

Bull cases:
-Debt ceiling getting raised