Does 200k sound absurd? All of the possible scenarios for BTC

#BTCUSD #Bitstamp #Weekly #Log #EW
- Hello traders from all over the world! It’s been a while since we’ve looked deep into the possible scenarios of Bitcoin in long-term EW perspective. The uploaded images are BTC weekly log scaled chart. Personally, I believe that spotting market trend and price actions utilizing Elliott wave theory is not that significant. So please just refer this post to roughly capture some possible trend flows and major PRZs (Potential Reversal Zone).
- All of the cases I have prepared today have an assumption that the upward wave starting from the low at $3000 is an impulsive wave cycle(Blue wave 5). Or else there would be too many for me to cover in an upload. Scenarios with different assumptions are to be covered in the future.
- Let’s start with scenario A first, my most bearish case. This wave counts regard that the current upward wave(30k~70k) is green sub-wave 5 of the blue wave 5. Even though I drew the whole impulsive black wave cycle in A-1, it is still possible that green wave 5 is still in progress as shown in A-2. This means that we might expect one more upward wave and the rough target price for wave 5 is around 95K~120K.
- Scenario B implies that the on-going wave(30k~70k) is sub-wave B of the green wave 4. This case has reflected that this very wave structure is closer to 5-3-5-3-5 rather than 5-3-5 zigzags and thus expanded flat wave B was considered. It is more bullish than the first scenario in a longer term, but bearish in a shorter term. If Bitcoin makes a high higher than 69K, this wave count is no more valid and the scenario A-2 becomes more likely. The green wave 4 is targeted at 17k~23k.
- Following case which interpreted that the green wave 3 has not ended, is scenario C. This count is somewhat similar to scenario A that the upward wave(30k~70k) has been considered as an impulsive, but this case regarded with lower degree(red). C-1 shows that the target price for green wave 4 is similar to that of scenario B when 69K is considered as the end of green wave 3. On the other hand, similar to A-2, C-2 also implied that black sub-wave 5 of green wave 3 has not ended yet and 95k~120k would be a rough target. After that if we see a corrective wave, possibly green wave 4, the green wave 5 can be targeted at 180k~220k. More precise targets are to be deducted later when more sub wave structures are formed.
- Last but not least, scenario D is assuming that the ongoing wave is the black sub-wave 4 of the green wave 3. This case also applied the expanded flat just like scenario B, but lower wave degree has been counted. If Bitcoin succeeds on breaking the high at 69k, this case becomes invalid and scenario C will gain some weight. Similar target prices from the previous cases are regarded for black wave 4 and 5 and the green wave 4 and 5 will be specified after.