BTCUSD symmetrical triangle | Bitfinex-Bitmex price discrepancy

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After the "pump" in the BTC days ago, the price difference between the major exchanges has increased and there is currently a lot of discrepancy between the bitmex, bitfinex, binance charts...

Usually when this occurs, bitfinex, despite having its pair with the BTC in tether and not in dollars like some other exchanges, is the platform that best reflects the "true" price movements and I was able to confirm this with a brief analysis.

In the above chart it is possible to see the formation of a perfect symmetrical triangle, it is a consolidation figure that statistically has above 70% chances of breaking in the direction of its trend (in this case uptrend, since the mast came from below), but this time a break up would not mean much, since we have just above the triangle a very important downtrend line started on December 23, so even if this breakup occurs we will find a very important resistance that probably will not allow the price to rise consistently.

The RSI confirms the movements of the price, also forming a triangle in the oscillator. In OBV and MACD we can confirm a complete balance between bears and bulls, with little oscillation in the last days. The MA200 remains a bit far in price and an approximation should occur within the next 24 hours.

My expectation is that the price keeps its movements inside the triangle for at least another 12h to 16h, but we must be careful, if there is a break down of the triangle with a large candle accompanied by volume in timeframes above 15m, we can start a entry in SHORT with a very short stop-loss, which would give us a great risk vs return ratio.

In the event of a break up, I do not indicate the entry into LONG, it should be re-evaluated the movements in the following hours to see if there will be a huge force to break the downtrend line of December 23.

Scalps operations can be made using the upper and lower lines of the triangle, when the candlesticks patterns such as bearish and bullish engulfing or hammers and "stars" appear touching the lines, indicating a brief reversal (within the triangle).

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God Bless!

Comment:

As I mentioned earlier, the price sought the MA200. There was a break down of the triangle with a good volume, I got to open a brief SHORT operation but I already closed. The price made a pullback on the triangle line and apparently is falling back. Closing a candle below $3653 at timeframes of 15m or greater is required to confirm a new bearish move.

Order cancelled:

With the new price movements the triangle was invalidated, apparently the figure that is forming is a bull flag. I will elaborate a new analysis in the next few hours re-evaluating the scenario.