timwest
Short

Bitcoin/Dollar BTCUSD Weekly - Weak Action Spells 300-180 target

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
4066 39 37
Sep 4, 2014 484.02 last

PRESSING MY ANALYSIS ANOTHER TIME HERE:

BTCUSD             fell all the way back to the level where the last rally emerged from and that action spells WEAKNESS to the overall tone of the market, especially AFTER IT FAILED to rally high enough to confirm the last uptrend set-up. THEREFORE - I will conclude that Bitcoin is being DISTRIBUTED heavily here and that this entire zone above us is our measuring stick for a decline to the 200 or lower area.

The two lowest risk places to sell Bitcoin are up against the distribution zone at 540-580 and on a break of 440 support. I know that seems to be a wide range, but there is just so much overhead supply here and I want to allow for some upside - at least a break above a previous week's high - not too much of a rally, but enough to get "discount buyers" excited.

Tim 9/4/2014 9:45PM EST 484.21 last
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BuyBitcoin
2 years ago
do u think prior to the dip to the 200-300s we will retest 540-560 area? (bull trap) like if we break past 495 within the next 48hours. thanks Tim
Reply
timwest PRO BuyBitcoin
2 years ago
I am keeping the possibilities open for a lift - I simply had to put out the analysis that the market action is telling us to be VERY BEARISH. Exactly how to get in is up to your particular style of entering the market. I think selling a bull-trap rally will be ideal - sell under previous day's low once it has reached high enough. I'll update this is as closely as I can as the market unfolds. I have been as BLUNT as ever on Bitcoin and this post is a bit "foggy" relative to the others. Bitcoin is so volatile that the "signal to noise" ratio is so high that it makes it difficult to manage risk. Waiting for specific levels to hit is the most logical way to go. The last decline trade was about the highest return/lowest risk trade that I've put out here at TradingView.
+1 Reply
ChartArt timwest
2 years ago
After experimenting with trading stocks and currencies I have to stay that it's for me much easier to predict Bitcoin prices, because BTC is always either very bullish or very bearish and most of the time nothing in between. There are so many high-frequency-trading bots in stocks and currencies which add so much noise to the 1-minute charts compared to Bitcoin. BTC charts are so nice and clean, logical and harmonic.

TLDR: Trading Bitcoin is easier (for me).
+1 Reply
Toutatis_4179 ChartArt
2 years ago
Agreed. I am a new trader (less than 1 year of experience), and have been consistently making profit on BTC, but just managed to break even on Forex trading. Forex is much harder than BTC for me..
+1 Reply
ChartArt Toutatis_4179
2 years ago
I agree. Forex is MUCH MUCH harder. I tried it. All these high-frequency-trading HTF bots which trade in nano-seconds make the charts extremely wild and noise.
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Avatarhash
2 years ago
thanks for your analysis, do you think that we visit 540-580 are first and then go down or its going down from here with the possibility to test 540-560 later.. ?
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ChartArt
2 years ago
I'm going to give up being bullish when Bitcoin can't establish a double bottom at $440-$450. Currently even in September there is still a clean up from the last big rally (May, June) going on.
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
In case the Bitcoin price falls below $400 then I think even $200 is too high and I guess the bottom will be around $100 or the eternal $135 from MtGox :)

Perfect Bubble in the making?
+3 Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
I changed my mind. Looking at the MtGox data in order to stay inside the longest uptrend channel the price has to stay above $250 in September 2014 to be within the uptrend - and by January 1st, 2015 the BTC price has to be above $300 to stay within the uptrend.
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BuyBitcoin ChartArt
2 years ago
the good 266 old low would be a good stop :) this month
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timwest PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
I would only add that despair comes before capitulation, in the psychological cycle...
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ChartArt timwest
2 years ago
Interestingly "despair" isn't even mentioned :)

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading/your-cheat-sheet-to-the-psychology-of-market-cycles-infographic.html/
Reply
timwest PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
Despair is on this chart..... Check out the "other charts" that they gave credit for creating their own. http://wallstcheatsheet.com/business/economy/four-great-looks-at-the-psychology-of-market-cycles.html/
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timwest PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
Nice going! Are we seeing "Despair' down here yet??
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ChartArt timwest
2 years ago
below $100 is despair
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JimFred
2 years ago
I agree with your assessment. If prices break ~340 I would expect price to drop to somewhere near the 86 low. In any case, I expect the bear market to end sometime in December, followed by a great year for btc bulls in 2015.
Reply
timwest PRO JimFred
2 years ago
I hope we can turn our long term forecasts into value for TradingView users. Thanks for sharing JimFred.
+1 Reply
erelerel
2 years ago
Great work
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timwest PRO erelerel
2 years ago
Thanks erelerel
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
Nice place to sell again on this rally 9/23/2014 right back into key resistance -
snapshot
+4 Reply
timwest PRO timwest
2 years ago
Cover back here near 400 for a nice trade... 402.34 ask
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin timwest
2 years ago
tim u mean its going down from here (400) ? :) or time to buy to reshort higher
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timwest PRO BuyBitcoin
2 years ago
I put out the sell at 442.9 and covering that trade here at the 400 level. I'll watch it for another low-risk entry. The longer term picture is very negative, technically speaking. I view that any upside progress will simply rally into old buyers who will be happy to supply the market at any higher levels - especially at the 460-480 area. 440-450 is the closest, most important supply level and the market responded to that level by falling off. I'll say that if we can see 420-430 then the market most likely will lose momentum at that price and tail off from there.
+2 Reply
Picolo
2 years ago
nice work
+3 Reply
timwest PRO Picolo
2 years ago
Thanks Picolo - Bitcoin does have decent setups from time to time... every few weeks or so.
+3 Reply
erelerel
2 years ago
amazing... the new question is: when to buy? :)
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timwest PRO erelerel
2 years ago
I'll post it when I see the buy signal. I see only small buys against a downward trending market. I think Bitcoins could go to near zero just from competition from other products. The high prices of bitcoins sealed their fate, like Dutch Tulip Bulbs. There is ultimately a floor value at a very low level, but the bubble is over, from what I can see. But, aside from that, let's just analyze the chart as it unfolds. OK? Have you see all the charts that I have posted on Bitcoin?
+2 Reply
Avatarhash timwest
2 years ago
looking forward to see your analysis
+1 Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
http://gizmodo.com/looks-like-facebook-messenger-is-prepping-friend-to-fri-1642683255?rev=1412535323054

http://goo.gl/vlRDhX <= or click on this shorter link to the same article.

Facebook messenger is prepping to handle person to person payments. They are trying to go after Venmo, the most popular person-to-person payment system. Ex-Pay Pal exec was brought over to Facebook and the code looks ready to launch soon. Watch out bitcoin... just another long term competitor.
Reply
Avatarhash timwest
2 years ago
That can easily implement bitcoin, dont you think? in future?
and the volume seem to come back, a 30k wall got eaten.. do you think it is enough for pullback to 450ish? or you still think we go down from here?
Reply
BuyBitcoin timwest
2 years ago
Bitcoin is decentralized and some privacy.
Facebook is centralized and no privacy at all.
Two different things :)
Reply
timwest PRO BuyBitcoin
2 years ago
Definitely different, but there are secure messages that you can send over Facebook. Facebook messenger is private (not public). With Apple going after payments, it seems to be spurring everyone to go after the payments space. Apple goes where it can dominate a market with a long term plan. The banks are easy prey right now, sitting fat and making easy money. Paying depositors nothing and charging high rates of interest to borrow and keeping all of the profits to rebuild their war-chests and pay out big wages, benefits and bonuses.
+1 Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
This is still on track, but on a shorter term time frame I have a buy signal. See the other Bitcoin Charts I have produced. Sat Oct 18, 2014
+1 Reply
charttrader PRO timwest
2 years ago
Nice trade!
Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
Nailed it!
+3 Reply
timwest PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
Thanks!
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
Well - This one has come together pretty well!
Reply
vortexspaces timwest
2 years ago
Great one! Waiting for further updates on btcusd))
+2 Reply
timwest PRO vortexspaces
2 years ago
Working on it now
+2 Reply
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