CHART ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED May 8, 2014 @ 443.39 last forecasting a rally towards 761. It fell shy of that upside target, but now is setting up a signal in the opposite direction.
Sell signal setting up ONLY IF Bitcoin drops under 607. Bitcoin failed to rally to the upside target and therefore implies some weakness in the market. The stop is placed above the previous weekly high at 633.
The market is set up to retest the key support level down there near 450. If it fails to drop down to that level, then we can assume that the market is strong again and a more bullish upside forecast can be made at that time. For now, the market is in a weak/neutral state since it failed to rally enough. So, don't worry about if it is going to $450, rather, take trades based on how the market is acting relative to buying and selling as shown on the chart.
Keep asking - I look at Bitcoin every so often (daily). It is the most "technical" chart of anything out there. I think technicals work best when a market is emotional and emerging, so it has been great to watch Bitcoin from a chart perspective. I will do my best, but I think it is set up to decline for many weeks, so I'm not expecting to look for a bottom anytime soon.
Time is about to run out on the decline and that will free up Bitcoin to rally. I will see what I can do in about a week. The chart is suggesting that the market could lift quite a bit because it can't seem to sell off. When a market is ripe to sell off (as Bitcoin has been) and it doesn't, then you do want to get long. The long-side trade is setting up for sure here.