It was a a time of uncertainty in the grip of March 2020, as even the "safe havens" of the financial world were decimated. From a technical analysis standpoint, price action signaled a looming macro bear market in virtually every market. But something subtle changed in Bitcoin's price action despite all the bearish outlook. No one knew it yet, but a higher low was settling in over the Summer with a breakout confirmation in August. That was the signal...
Setup
By ignoring the March price deviation, a parabolic move was setting up.
The biggest bullish signal by far was the breakout of a major macro downtrend. This was so big that I bought BTC and ETH at the highs without thinking twice. Then again on the next dip as the weekly MACD was well above zero, indicating momentum was building. With the All Time Highs within arms reach, large institutional investors are often looking to take advantage of short seller's predictable trading psychology, squeezing prices higher as they run for cover.
Targets
As volume picks up and professionals gobble up the nickle n dimers, algos take over and sell orders are placed in the most strategic places. Fun Fact: Roughly 80% of professional trading is algorithmic. The macro Fibonacci extension off the last major bull run works well.
A closer look reveals how it works. When writing an algorithm you need to set conditions. By the looks of it those conditions are IF prices closes above the fibs, buy the dips and breakouts. ELSE IF price closes below, sell...
Now that price has closed below the 1.618 fib, we could see some selling. However, I think this could be just the first wave of buying as Bitcoin's dominance becomes apparent to those that don't quite understand it yet.
Strategy
If there is a decisive close above this level, it could go higher. Ideally, it would be beneficial to build a base before the next leg up. The strategy is to watch the fibs. Short term we could see some consolidation in the near term. Some selling also if the DXY starts to rally. But, longer term Bitcoin should go much higher. Next up will be a crypto ETF and more institutional adoption. Buy the dips.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long:
BTC, ETH
Setup
By ignoring the March price deviation, a parabolic move was setting up.
The biggest bullish signal by far was the breakout of a major macro downtrend. This was so big that I bought BTC and ETH at the highs without thinking twice. Then again on the next dip as the weekly MACD was well above zero, indicating momentum was building. With the All Time Highs within arms reach, large institutional investors are often looking to take advantage of short seller's predictable trading psychology, squeezing prices higher as they run for cover.
Targets
As volume picks up and professionals gobble up the nickle n dimers, algos take over and sell orders are placed in the most strategic places. Fun Fact: Roughly 80% of professional trading is algorithmic. The macro Fibonacci extension off the last major bull run works well.
A closer look reveals how it works. When writing an algorithm you need to set conditions. By the looks of it those conditions are IF prices closes above the fibs, buy the dips and breakouts. ELSE IF price closes below, sell...
Now that price has closed below the 1.618 fib, we could see some selling. However, I think this could be just the first wave of buying as Bitcoin's dominance becomes apparent to those that don't quite understand it yet.
Strategy
If there is a decisive close above this level, it could go higher. Ideally, it would be beneficial to build a base before the next leg up. The strategy is to watch the fibs. Short term we could see some consolidation in the near term. Some selling also if the DXY starts to rally. But, longer term Bitcoin should go much higher. Next up will be a crypto ETF and more institutional adoption. Buy the dips.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long:
BTC, ETH
Comment:
Bots love fib levels and they act like magnets when price overshoots or undershoots. Looks like this 1.618 level is going to cause some noise before the next move. I'd like to see stabilization above it otherwise could be more downside towards 22,500.
Comment:
So far so good. BTC is forming a bullish flag above the fib level mapped out months ago. Breaking out to the upside I think it will go looking to that 52k level above. If it starts closing below that level however, I'd expect more selling to kick in. I won't be one of those sellers since I prefer to capture larger swings, mostly because I am too lazy to nickel and dime all day.
Comment:
Note: The psychology in the crypto market right now seems to be v e r y optimistic so I wouldn't be surprised to see a false breakout or a dump on the FOMO'ers before the next leg up. If that happens I'd be looking at the 22k for support and would consider buying more.
Comment:
Well, now we know why price never corrected much. Telsa bought the dip. Now a massive breakout blew out the shorts at the previous high as they disclose this news. After converting ETH to BTC last week I've also added about 1/7th more to my BTC position today. Next up I see the fib at 52k. If it overshoots then should get some resistance at the one above it.
Comment:
BTC is approaching the fib levels I've mapped out highlighted by the grey box. I'm going to start trimming back my position (up to 50%) within this box and wait for a better price to reload. As much as I'd like to just hold, I'm a trader at heart. I sold all of my ATOM at 25.71 and half of my ALGO at 1.27 yesterday.
Comment:
After a 360ish% gain I've taken some profits out of BTC @ 52k and moved it into my Roth IRA where I can trade it and gains aren't taxed. Ideally BTC will correct a bit and I can buy GBTC or that other one I can't remember.
Comment:
Once again, as price attempts to fly past a fib extension the bots come in and hammer it down, the fib acting like a magnet. I'm starting to see this pattern more often in other markets as well. This happened in Gold at the recent top at the 0.618 for example. I'm watching for either a failure to break to new highs and a short term correction OR breaking the highs to resume the next leg up. A correction is more likely since price is simply over extended. I began to average back into some alt coins on this dip but nothing big. Going to accumulate small bits on every dip.
Comment:
Beginning to slowly average back into BTC on any dips moving forward.
Comment:
Looks like a broadening channel is in play but I don't think it will be that easy to trade it. Expecting more surprises along the way. There is likely room for another leg up but now that everyone is calling for 100k, I will be selling near 80k (if it gets there). Could go something like this...
Comment:
Noticed peak volume comes in at the fib extensions almost perfectly. Probably just need to re-adjust the measurements a bit. The 'volume profile' works well to check if the fib extensions are valid. Still accumulating (small amounts) on dips here but remaining cautious as it's possible BTC tags the 1.618 or even the 1 fib level.
Comment:
Finally, a dip. Didn't sell anything and now the first wave up in this bull run looks to have set a base. So now I can measure the potential targets on a 2nd wave >> $116,000
