Is Bitcoin Exhausted? Short term drop possible

Hello Everyone,

Unpopular opinion, but I believe Bitcoin is going to drop. Here's why:

I believe we are in an "exhausted state". Now when I say this, I absolutely do not think this bull market is over or even close to over. Bitcoin went up too high too fast and it needs to chill out for a few weeks to a month.
From a macro overview, Bitcoin has continued to push higher highs with less volume and the moves have been a lot less dramatic. It has failed to push through $60,000 many times and I believe it is going to take more volume to get past these levels. I also believe Wyckoff or a Distribution phase is being formed on the Daily chart.
On a monthly chart, we have 6 green months in a row with no pullback with the volume waning on the March and February monthly candles signaling some sort of exhaustion in the market.

Here are some technicals on the Daily/Weekly charts:

1. RSI has lower highs as we're making higher highs in price. This is a bearish signal.

2. Price action: Higher price with lower volume or waning volume. Typically this leads into what is known as Wyckoff or distribution and the price goes down. Again, a bearish signal.

3. There is weak buying momentum on the weekly chart. This indicates weakness in the current direction as Bitcoin has seen 4 waning weeks in a row of buying momentum. In 2017, this indicated a 30% correction.

4. Failure to break above $60,000 and hold. - Indicates people are selling as soon as we have reached the "Top" (Another reason why I am referencing this current state as Wyckoff or Distribution).


In the 2017 bull market, the weekly price bounced off the 20MA several times and it has yet to do so. I believe Bitcoin's price will fall to the 20MA and bounce very hard off of it at first. We won't know that we're having confirmed continuation until the price action looks bullish again. Now with all of this being said, we could get a ton of volume to come in and we push to the upper $60ks to $70ks in price, but I do not think it will hold very long, if it holds at all. I would be very careful buying in the blue box territory I have on my chart.

Please give me a thumbs up if you liked my analysis and comment your opinion below.

And as always, manage your risk, be patient, and good luck trading!