Retail tricked in April, then in July, and now again?

While Bitcoin hovers slightly below $35,000, the volume continues to decline, suggesting a decreasing interest among buyers near the current price tags. Consequently, we remain very vigilant and monitor the situation. On the daily chart, RSI is approaching 70 points; if it breaks below this level, it will bolster the odds for a trend reversal. In addition to that, MACD and Stochastic are rolling over, turning slightly bearish. As if that was not enough, ADX seems to have peaked, which could have signaled the top for Bitcoin. Yet, despite all of these developments, we continue to see extremely bullish sentiment, mainly among retail. Overall, the situation is reminiscent of April 2023 and July 2023, when Bitcoin was topping (and retail kept buying tokens from big players). Therefore, a big shakeup might be just behind a corner.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support levels derived from peaks and troughs.

Illustration 1.02

The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages acting as alternative support levels to watch out for.

Illustration 1.03

Illustration 1.03 portrays the questionable relationship between the price and volume.

Illustration 1.04

The image above shows the daily chart of RSI, which is approaching 70 points.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (peaking and turning slightly bearish)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Comment:

According to various sources, over $140 million in liquidations took place in the past 24 hours, with much of it being shorts. In addition to that, the data from LookIntoBitcoin shows the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC rising yesterday. That might suggest bullish speculators are not giving up yet. Overall, we continue to think it is probably still the best option to stay on the sidelines and wait until the market is done screwing everyone.