I haven't charted BTC since back in October, when I thought BTC could fall to $15.8k
. Turns out it hit that level and bounced.
I ended up buying that level and sold it at $17k for a quick profit because I was unclear of the direction going forward and I thought there was risk for BTC to fall to $12k, but it has since bounced higher.
Now the trend and the chart has become clearer to me and I think we're setup for a 1-4 month run from here to it's final target of $42-44k. Why that level?
Well I think most people think we can only go to $30k on this bounce, so bouncing higher than that would convince a majority of the market that we're back in a bull market (which we're not). It's also the 50% retracement level from the high (which would make sense for us to retest in a bear market).
I think we're likely to get to these levels by May-June and then I think we'll head down back to the levels I originally thought we were going to $9-12k (for the final bottom). But let's not focus on the downside for now.
In the coming months, look for bitcoin to break these resistance levels on the upside and get to the ultimate target of $42-44k.
Let's see how it plays out in the coming months.
. Turns out it hit that level and bounced.
I ended up buying that level and sold it at $17k for a quick profit because I was unclear of the direction going forward and I thought there was risk for BTC to fall to $12k, but it has since bounced higher.
Now the trend and the chart has become clearer to me and I think we're setup for a 1-4 month run from here to it's final target of $42-44k. Why that level?
Well I think most people think we can only go to $30k on this bounce, so bouncing higher than that would convince a majority of the market that we're back in a bull market (which we're not). It's also the 50% retracement level from the high (which would make sense for us to retest in a bear market).
I think we're likely to get to these levels by May-June and then I think we'll head down back to the levels I originally thought we were going to $9-12k (for the final bottom). But let's not focus on the downside for now.
In the coming months, look for bitcoin to break these resistance levels on the upside and get to the ultimate target of $42-44k.
Let's see how it plays out in the coming months.
Comment:
Looking back at this chart, we did bounce exactly at that $19k support. Now price is at resistance, would make sense to me to see a pullback to $25.6k support before a continuation higher as we never tested it as support after blowing through it.
I do still think we'll hit the final target by July (in June).
I do still think we'll hit the final target by July (in June).
Comment:
Got the rejection at $30.4k, still see this going back to $25.6k.
Comment:
I'm not sure we get another leg down. $26.9k might've been the bottom. I've taken some alt positions in the last day or so.
Originally I planned to be out of the market until around May 8th but the charts are looking more constructive.
Let's see. Two scenarios, we go higher from here or we have one last low in the $22k-25k range before higher.
Originally I planned to be out of the market until around May 8th but the charts are looking more constructive.
Let's see. Two scenarios, we go higher from here or we have one last low in the $22k-25k range before higher.
Comment:
I'm cautiously optimistic. I could see a pump into monthly close and then see a bearish start to the month as a scenario, so if you're longing, keep tight stops.
If we do get one more leg down, it'll nuke hard.
If we do get one more leg down, it'll nuke hard.
Comment:
Well that all happened quickly. Now I lean towards a retest of
29K
before we fall further.
Don't think we break that recent high.
29K
before we fall further. Don't think we break that recent high.
Comment:
Down looks like the most likely scenario. We're at the retest of $29.0k, now I think we fail here and move lower.
Bottom should be between $22k-25.6k around or before May 8th.
Bottom should be between $22k-25.6k around or before May 8th.
Comment:
Another update: If we hold $26.9k - $27.2k on a retest of support. I think we'll see continuation higher. That's where I'll be looking for longs.
A move down to that level will make smaller timeframes look like a H&S top and I'd anticipate everyone turning bearish. But a successful retest of that level (that holds) will setup a large surge higher.
I'm kind of leaning towards the upside scenario now.
Sorry for the constant back and forth, but the price action has been choppy and just trying to update my thoughts as the price action becomes clearer.
Let's see what happens next week.
A move down to that level will make smaller timeframes look like a H&S top and I'd anticipate everyone turning bearish. But a successful retest of that level (that holds) will setup a large surge higher.
I'm kind of leaning towards the upside scenario now.
Sorry for the constant back and forth, but the price action has been choppy and just trying to update my thoughts as the price action becomes clearer.
Let's see what happens next week.
Comment:
I'm not sure we'll see prices lower than where we're at now. I loaded up on alts the past 3 days expecting higher from here. Many alts are testing their lows now. Could be one leg lower, but the risk reward looked good enough for me to fully deploy again.
BAND
,
HBAR
,
INJ
,
ARB
,
ALGO
,
FIL
,
LDO
,
FLR
, NASDAQ:PYR,
GRT
,
SUSHI
,
APT
and
SOL
BAND
,
HBAR
,
INJ
,
ARB
,
ALGO
,
FIL
,
LDO
,
FLR
, NASDAQ:PYR,
GRT
,
SUSHI
,
APT
and
SOL
Comment:
Welp, got a little too impatient and entered a bit too early. We did get the leg lower and now everyone is at extreme bearishness. Seeing everyone calling for $25-26k.
I'm still bullish, nothing in my view has changed.
So far
BTC
has held $27.2k, could it get retested? Sure. Could we get a little bit lower than that? Sure. But I'm leaning bullish here with sentiment so bearish and that level holding so far. Everyone is negative into the CPI print and I can see CPI printing a large green candle higher.
Let's see.
I'm still bullish, nothing in my view has changed.
So far
BTC
has held $27.2k, could it get retested? Sure. Could we get a little bit lower than that? Sure. But I'm leaning bullish here with sentiment so bearish and that level holding so far. Everyone is negative into the CPI print and I can see CPI printing a large green candle higher. Let's see.
Comment:
Big green candle incoming.
Comment:
Didn't see the reversal coming, but now $26.9k and $27.2k hit and held so far, still think the same thing unless we lose those levels.
Comment:
Most alts look like they're ready to bounce here, so does BTC. I don't think we get another leg down. Should start moving up from here. Breakout higher comes the week of May 22nd.
Comment:
Retesting the $26.9k level from Monday. Again, I expect this level to hold and in two weeks, people will completely forget that this dip even happened.
I think we'll see a strong bounce in the comings weeks and many alts will see new highs for the year.
Let's see. This level needs to hold though.
I think we'll see a strong bounce in the comings weeks and many alts will see new highs for the year.
Let's see. This level needs to hold though.
Comment:
Added more to my alts here
Comment:
All aboard... next stop, the resistance(s) higher. Don't be caught waiting for new lows, bc I don't think we're going to get them.
Too many bears waiting for $24-25k. Alts are bouncing, indicating to me, the lows are likely in.
Too many bears waiting for $24-25k. Alts are bouncing, indicating to me, the lows are likely in.
Comment:
Looking good so far...
Comment:
The next move should be to $34.7k. Too many bears still calling for new lows.
Comment:
Welp looks like I was wrong and we ended up hitting that $25.6k level that I thought we needed to hit back in April. Guess it's just a lesson in patience and that all supports/resistances eventually get hit before continuation higher or lower.
Let's see if we bounce here. There's one more support at $24.8k as well if the move continues down.
Let's see if we bounce here. There's one more support at $24.8k as well if the move continues down.
Comment:
I've created an update to focus on the smaller timeframes (overall thesis hasn't changed though). Just gives my level to bid:
Comment:
My guess is that this will end up playing out over the coming weeks. Multiple charts I've created over the past few months have led me to a $42-44k target. Over this resistance and I think we test that region.
Comment:
Now approaching final target of $44.5k
Just want to remind everyone of this line from the original idea:
"Well I think most people think we can only go to $30k on this bounce, so bouncing higher than that would convince a majority of the market that we're back in a bull market (which we're not). It's also the 50% retracement level from the high (which would make sense for us to retest in a bear market)."
"I think we're likely to get to these levels by May-June (timing was off) and then I think we'll head down back to the levels I originally thought we were going to $9-12k (for the final bottom)."
Be cautious to manage your risk up at these levels. I'm still of the belief that we go sub $10k after this move assuming it gets rejected in this region.
Just want to remind everyone of this line from the original idea:
"Well I think most people think we can only go to $30k on this bounce, so bouncing higher than that would convince a majority of the market that we're back in a bull market (which we're not). It's also the 50% retracement level from the high (which would make sense for us to retest in a bear market)."
"I think we're likely to get to these levels by May-June (timing was off) and then I think we'll head down back to the levels I originally thought we were going to $9-12k (for the final bottom)."
Be cautious to manage your risk up at these levels. I'm still of the belief that we go sub $10k after this move assuming it gets rejected in this region.
Comment:
Top tapped.
Let's see though.