Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (1st October 2021)

Overnight BTCUSD jumped 10% up leaving many investors perplexed. We noted in our previous idea that we changed our stance to neutral. We think if price fails to break above resistance near 49 000 USD then downtrend will resume. In our opinion this area is very attractive for short re-entry if one took profits on a way down. But we think such position should be accompanied with tight stops due to rising volatility in BTC. Our stance is neutral (to bearish if resistance manages to hold further rise of price).

Technical analysis
On daily time frame RSI and Stochastic reversed to the upside. MACD is striving to turn bullish as well. ADX is declining with suggests that prevailing trend is losing momentum.
However, hourly time frame is in extremely overbought condition. Because of that we are very sceptical of overnight rise.

Support and resistance
We are closely watching mentioned 49 000 USD price level as short-term resistance appears slightly below it. Next resistance sits around 53 000 USD and 60 000 USD respectively. Then major resistance sits at all time high near 65 000 USD. We also watch short-term support near 39 500 USD. Another support below that appears close to 37 500 USD.

BTC1! (Bitcoin continuous futures)

We also observe gap visible in the futures market as we think of it as important level. Breakout to the downside from this area would suggest that downtrend resumed.

Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.

Trade active:

There is not much price action by BTCUSD over the weekend so far. We think this inability to continue higher and break above resistance near 49 000 USD points to more weakness over the coming week.

Trade active:

BTCUSD breaks above resistance near 49 000 USD in sudden jump that took less than 10 minutes! We will closely observe price action overnight and tomorrow. This breakout is very bullish for BTCUSD and if price manages to hold above resistance then more upside is very likely. Next closest resistance appears near 53 000 USD.

Comment:

Mentioned breakout is depicted below on 1 minute chart of BTCUSD:

Comment:

Just few hours later BTCUSD retraced its spike. We wonder whether this move up is a bull trap. In our opinion investors should be cautious.