Bitcoin Parabolic Rally? Or is it Just an Attempt?
The market is moving from one fractal to the other it seems. The April 2018 fractal i kept showing was a great guideline, but at some points it was weaker while at the breakout to 10K it was slightly stronger, making it it despite the similarity somewhat confusing. The fractal showed a mid-term high was incoming, but instead of seeing a bearish trend for a few weeks, it dumped 20% within a few hours.
When that dump happened, i started to look at the drop we had almost exactly a year ago, half way of the big 2019 rally, where you can see the arrow on the left. But after i started to post about it, the movements were becoming very different so i did not know what the game plan of the whales was anymore. Until yesterday, i noticed that we were not doing the arrow area, but actually the chart you see here above. I did a lot of updates in my public channel past days, one of them was this of 2 days ago (thoughts changed since of course):
Maybe the biggest reason why i think carefully thinking of bearish movement. We have those 3 big wicks at the 8100/8300. If whales were bullish here, they should have had enough volume already to fill up longs. They why is it taking so long and why are they doing these small tricks to move up price slowly?
Well, those wicks were clearly accumulation, that's clear now, but they really got me confused because it was moving so slow. In hindsight it's clear to why it went that slow, there were not enough shorts in the market yet. Hope everyone understand that already, this market moves mostly on stop hunts.
Update i did yesterday:
So a crap show indeed, i must say, i find it hard to get a read on the market since yesterday, many conflicting signs.
The 8950ish resistance has held several times now, but on the right we can see a triangle has been formed. Now this is not a perfect triangle, because of that parabolic shape in the middle, which makes me skeptical, because it feels it has been forced. But it's shape is there, which looks pretty perfect, but volume inside the triangle is not clearly dropping. So i just can't help but thinking it might become a trap, so break up, failing to reach the target just below 9300 and dump again. But it's a feeling, so i am not betting on it, unless i clearly see something. The candle on the left, is a big buy signal, especially if it would close above 9000.
Now i did mention those big wicks at 8100/8200 from past days, 3 times we dropped big and got pumped back up again, the third time it happened it is normally a bullish sign. As you saw in my latest analysis on TV, comparing the almost identical move from May 2019, then we eventually made a big pump upwards. Now it's just going up slowly in a correctional manner (which is normally bearish after the big dump we had). Now maybe this big pump might still happen, maybe if it breaks 9100/9200, we see a major stop hunt/short squeeze.
So i must say, i really don't know at this point 🤷♂️
What i can say is, the triangle broke up, no pump yet (but still holding stable), so if we would see a drop below 8900/8850, might mean this move was a bull trap.
Other updates:
Now obviously the 9150ish got rejected big time 2 days ago, so that level will probably also be a big resistance. So i think for the bull version, we need to see 9150 break, reach the triangle target around 9250/300 and then start to flag around 9400/9100. Think any other, weaker version, might still make the trend bearish again
This played out quite easily for the bulls.
is it just me, or is this triangle breakout NOT what we are used to seeing. When did this market ever give a chance, even an hour or 2 to buy this breakout? Just doesn't make sense to me. But it's holding very stable as well.
Also clear to why they gave the opportunity to long (or short), more shorts were needed.
Now once again it's clear to why it was moving so slowly at first, whales needed more short fuel before breaking a new level. I wasn't watching all day, but at one moment (around 9100 i think it was), think i noticed OI was up like 40/50 mil at Bitmex, so a lot of new bears shorted there.
Bit bumped I didn't notice this fractal sooner, it would have cleared up everything about what was going on. These things normally never get passed me, just not working 16 hours a day anymore :). Anyway, there is a difference now obviously, back then it went above the previous high and started to consolidate inside a triangle. This time, it got stuck below that high. Think as long as it moves above 9500ish, this will probably be a good guideline. If we break it, and make a drop below 9400ish, then i think it's off the table. Doesn't mean it's bearish, just making it different. Back then, alts were also very weak compared to Bitcoin.
When ignoring the fractal, think 9400ish is a key level now for this parabolic rally from past 2 days, better said it's short bullish momentum might then end. Think the key level for the bullish trend might be 8800ish, where 9100 is in the middle as a support level. So what the bulls want to see, is a consolidation in the 9500/10.000 zone. Normally we need to see 3 touches of 10.000, first one was a few hours ago, if we get the second one, chances for the bulls will be quite good i think. Then you always have the danger of a double top, so bulls need to form a higher low then, which eventually results in an ascending triangle, like the blue line is showing. A backup plan for the bulls is a bull flag, think the max low should be that 9400 level, maybe 9350.
At the moment, the correction turned into a bullish wedge, where the 9700/50 is a key resistance for the short term, if that breaks, we could see another attempt of for the 10Kish. Think for now, it has to stay above the 9580ish with a max of 9550, if we drop below those, the wedge would become invalidated.
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Previous analysis:
When that dump happened, i started to look at the drop we had almost exactly a year ago, half way of the big 2019 rally, where you can see the arrow on the left. But after i started to post about it, the movements were becoming very different so i did not know what the game plan of the whales was anymore. Until yesterday, i noticed that we were not doing the arrow area, but actually the chart you see here above. I did a lot of updates in my public channel past days, one of them was this of 2 days ago (thoughts changed since of course):
Maybe the biggest reason why i think carefully thinking of bearish movement. We have those 3 big wicks at the 8100/8300. If whales were bullish here, they should have had enough volume already to fill up longs. They why is it taking so long and why are they doing these small tricks to move up price slowly?
Well, those wicks were clearly accumulation, that's clear now, but they really got me confused because it was moving so slow. In hindsight it's clear to why it went that slow, there were not enough shorts in the market yet. Hope everyone understand that already, this market moves mostly on stop hunts.
Update i did yesterday:
So a crap show indeed, i must say, i find it hard to get a read on the market since yesterday, many conflicting signs.
The 8950ish resistance has held several times now, but on the right we can see a triangle has been formed. Now this is not a perfect triangle, because of that parabolic shape in the middle, which makes me skeptical, because it feels it has been forced. But it's shape is there, which looks pretty perfect, but volume inside the triangle is not clearly dropping. So i just can't help but thinking it might become a trap, so break up, failing to reach the target just below 9300 and dump again. But it's a feeling, so i am not betting on it, unless i clearly see something. The candle on the left, is a big buy signal, especially if it would close above 9000.
Now i did mention those big wicks at 8100/8200 from past days, 3 times we dropped big and got pumped back up again, the third time it happened it is normally a bullish sign. As you saw in my latest analysis on TV, comparing the almost identical move from May 2019, then we eventually made a big pump upwards. Now it's just going up slowly in a correctional manner (which is normally bearish after the big dump we had). Now maybe this big pump might still happen, maybe if it breaks 9100/9200, we see a major stop hunt/short squeeze.
So i must say, i really don't know at this point 🤷♂️
What i can say is, the triangle broke up, no pump yet (but still holding stable), so if we would see a drop below 8900/8850, might mean this move was a bull trap.
Other updates:
Now obviously the 9150ish got rejected big time 2 days ago, so that level will probably also be a big resistance. So i think for the bull version, we need to see 9150 break, reach the triangle target around 9250/300 and then start to flag around 9400/9100. Think any other, weaker version, might still make the trend bearish again
This played out quite easily for the bulls.
is it just me, or is this triangle breakout NOT what we are used to seeing. When did this market ever give a chance, even an hour or 2 to buy this breakout? Just doesn't make sense to me. But it's holding very stable as well.
Also clear to why they gave the opportunity to long (or short), more shorts were needed.
Now once again it's clear to why it was moving so slowly at first, whales needed more short fuel before breaking a new level. I wasn't watching all day, but at one moment (around 9100 i think it was), think i noticed OI was up like 40/50 mil at Bitmex, so a lot of new bears shorted there.
Bit bumped I didn't notice this fractal sooner, it would have cleared up everything about what was going on. These things normally never get passed me, just not working 16 hours a day anymore :). Anyway, there is a difference now obviously, back then it went above the previous high and started to consolidate inside a triangle. This time, it got stuck below that high. Think as long as it moves above 9500ish, this will probably be a good guideline. If we break it, and make a drop below 9400ish, then i think it's off the table. Doesn't mean it's bearish, just making it different. Back then, alts were also very weak compared to Bitcoin.
When ignoring the fractal, think 9400ish is a key level now for this parabolic rally from past 2 days, better said it's short bullish momentum might then end. Think the key level for the bullish trend might be 8800ish, where 9100 is in the middle as a support level. So what the bulls want to see, is a consolidation in the 9500/10.000 zone. Normally we need to see 3 touches of 10.000, first one was a few hours ago, if we get the second one, chances for the bulls will be quite good i think. Then you always have the danger of a double top, so bulls need to form a higher low then, which eventually results in an ascending triangle, like the blue line is showing. A backup plan for the bulls is a bull flag, think the max low should be that 9400 level, maybe 9350.
At the moment, the correction turned into a bullish wedge, where the 9700/50 is a key resistance for the short term, if that breaks, we could see another attempt of for the 10Kish. Think for now, it has to stay above the 9580ish with a max of 9550, if we drop below those, the wedge would become invalidated.
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Previous analysis:
Comment:
Forgot to post the bullish wedge :)
Comment:
Wedge reached it's first target, some rejection but small so far, so think an attempt is being made to form a higher low (right shoulder) with the neckline at 9760. Think max low should be around 9660/40
Comment:
Seems as if something is going on here. A few hours ago i saw a 10 mil market sell push Bitcoin down 5 hours ago around 9730/40. Just now, same thing at the same price range (divided in many 2 mil markets sells so i guess the same one). First one i thought, okay just noise price didn't really drop. Now i am not sure, smells a bit fishy :). Open Intrest didn't change both times even i think.
Comment:
If price doesn't drop below 9500, then it might just be some big trader trying to move the market. In that case, assuming he is shorting (and not selling), if we do see price move back above 9750/800 (don''t know how much losses they can take), to see those market sells turn into buys. Thing is, volume on Binance was big as well, so not just a Bitmex whale i think.
I do remember from the 2019 rally, also many big sells, but eventually price pumped quite big from the 9K to 14K. So first one i didnt want to say anything, not the first time, but now, just wanted to mention it. Think we have a range now, 9800/750 and think 9600 is a level as well now.
I do remember from the 2019 rally, also many big sells, but eventually price pumped quite big from the 9K to 14K. So first one i didnt want to say anything, not the first time, but now, just wanted to mention it. Think we have a range now, 9800/750 and think 9600 is a level as well now.
Comment:
An update i did in my channel yesterday, i wrote it like an hour before that small pump to 9880 and that dump to 9580. I waited with posting it because i did NOT wanted the big boys to change their plans, so i did it exactly the second it pumped to the 9880 high, posting the message:
Think this might be the correct way to draw the line. So looks as if it's the middle or the right version. Think the middle version, should take bit more sideways action. Which means, that if we see it pump within an hour or so, it could be the bearish version. It's guessing for now, i would just keep an eye out for a fake breakout of the bull flag.
Now this is a guess, but i think, that if we go up here, there is danger for the bearish version, red line. If we drop but hold the bull flag, then bullish version is more likely....
waited with posting it, so think this is it. If it drops below 9600ish now, think trap is set. if we stay above 9800/750, then maybe breakout is real.....
Half hour before the dump i went to sleep :( These thought were also because of what i mentioned here in the previous update, i think whales fight with each other as well, but felt the one i talked about yesterday, knew exactly what they were doing
Think this might be the correct way to draw the line. So looks as if it's the middle or the right version. Think the middle version, should take bit more sideways action. Which means, that if we see it pump within an hour or so, it could be the bearish version. It's guessing for now, i would just keep an eye out for a fake breakout of the bull flag.
Now this is a guess, but i think, that if we go up here, there is danger for the bearish version, red line. If we drop but hold the bull flag, then bullish version is more likely....
waited with posting it, so think this is it. If it drops below 9600ish now, think trap is set. if we stay above 9800/750, then maybe breakout is real.....
Half hour before the dump i went to sleep :( These thought were also because of what i mentioned here in the previous update, i think whales fight with each other as well, but felt the one i talked about yesterday, knew exactly what they were doing
Comment:
Now the first drop was a big stop hunt once again, so think the second one to 9400/350 is what we should look at. If you remember what i said yesterday?
"A backup plan for the bulls is a bull flag , think the max low should be that 9400 level, maybe 9350."
So think the flag version might still be in play here, but on the right we can see a resistance level and line around 9700/740. Above that, think the 9900ish is the more important level. If that one gets touched again, think sooner or later it will break. So for now, can still go both ways. So would say, the range is around 9750/9350
"A backup plan for the bulls is a bull flag , think the max low should be that 9400 level, maybe 9350."
So think the flag version might still be in play here, but on the right we can see a resistance level and line around 9700/740. Above that, think the 9900ish is the more important level. If that one gets touched again, think sooner or later it will break. So for now, can still go both ways. So would say, the range is around 9750/9350
Comment:
Bitcoin seems to have one problem now, that is the curving shape on the right. That one needs to break, otherwise we could see some acceleration to the downside. Can also see that we have a small triangle on the right, which could also give an answer.
Now that green zone on the right, is probably a key zone. Small movement through it, might not mean much, but if we see a dump through it, think it will trigger a lot of stops. From people who went long in that flag, big chance they all have a stop level just below it.
Think if the big bull flag plays out, it might take another day or 2 of movement inside of it. So good chance we see another test of the high and low of it. So maybe, it's better to see the 9800/9900 and the green zone as described as a neutral zone.
So a fast break of the green zone, think will be a confirmation that the high is set. Think Bitcoin needs to break the curved shape and the triangle on the upside, otherwise things could become more bearish. Looks as if we could get an answer any minute now
Now that green zone on the right, is probably a key zone. Small movement through it, might not mean much, but if we see a dump through it, think it will trigger a lot of stops. From people who went long in that flag, big chance they all have a stop level just below it.
Think if the big bull flag plays out, it might take another day or 2 of movement inside of it. So good chance we see another test of the high and low of it. So maybe, it's better to see the 9800/9900 and the green zone as described as a neutral zone.
So a fast break of the green zone, think will be a confirmation that the high is set. Think Bitcoin needs to break the curved shape and the triangle on the upside, otherwise things could become more bearish. Looks as if we could get an answer any minute now
Comment:
So blue line on the left is what bulls want to see. Think any other scenario, might be tricky for the bulls up to becoming maybe even bearish
Comment:
Looked as if the triangle would break down, but it held. Now it looks like it wants to break up. Now this should create a small squeeze up i think. If we see a slow move up as i have drawn with the red line, with low volume as well, then big chance it will drop. If we see a stronger move, then maybe the blue line of the big bull flag might play out (assuming 9900ish will hold as resistance and flag becomes bigger as mentioned above)
Comment:
So it was slow and low volume, dropped but no dump. Think we can assume the curved line is still putting pressure on Bitcoin. The 9400ish zone is of course a bigger support zone than the 9500 (assuming the bull flag is in play, the low side is around 9400. So think we are again at a similar spot as a few hours ago. Either it breaks up strong with decent volume, or we might drop again if we see anything slow like described in the previous update.
ETH is also at a important level now it seems. Touched 197 a few times now, it could make a big drop if that breaks, if 196 breaks as well.
ETH is also at a important level now it seems. Touched 197 a few times now, it could make a big drop if that breaks, if 196 breaks as well.
Comment:
Tight range here it seems, between those 2 zones on the right. Taking a lot of time with the drop, could be in favor of the bulls. But the curved shape is still in play!
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So maybe we are at make or break situation for Bitcoin. Exactly this is what bitcoin was created for, an alternative for fiat money, a store of value. My theory on Bitcoin has always been that's it's a cash cow for the rich/whales/pro's. Stock market broke some big levels past days, potentially the start of a big dump there again. Now IF that would happen, think it will be a key test again for Bitcoin. Will it rally during a stock market crash or will it be dragged down like in March, because the market doesn't see it as an alternative of fiat money, but just a risky asset, where many want to get rid of during uncertain times