Are we really doing this again? There's good news and bad news but also potentially even better news!
I charted the recent down pattern of bitcoin to Wyckoff and have once again found a matching pattern to the Accumulation Cycle. You can see these accumulation phases in blue.
I then noticed that the larger pattern could be a Wyckoff Distribution Cycle and have charted that in orange.
But there is also another Wyckoff pattern called the Reaccumulation Cycle and it too looks like it could be a Reaccumulation pattern. These arrows are green.
What to look out for
So in my opinion there is still not enough data to tell exactly where bitcoin where go from here, but it is nice to understand the likely pathways using Wyckoff, which has been reliable in the past.
A good Wyckoff article can be found here if you want to read more: phemex.com/academy/wyckoff-accumulation
I charted the recent down pattern of bitcoin to Wyckoff and have once again found a matching pattern to the Accumulation Cycle. You can see these accumulation phases in blue.
I then noticed that the larger pattern could be a Wyckoff Distribution Cycle and have charted that in orange.
But there is also another Wyckoff pattern called the Reaccumulation Cycle and it too looks like it could be a Reaccumulation pattern. These arrows are green.
What to look out for
- I believe the "spring" is about to happen for the short-term Accumulation Cycle, this could bring the price near 30k. If it doesn't bounce hard if 30k is hit and just lags around there, I would be worried that it is a shorter Distribution Cycle and will follow the red line.
- Next most important area is the UTAD. This could be the long-term top of bitcoin but it is NOT a requirement in the distribution cycle so no guarantee that it will happen. It also may not be a distribution cycle but instead a Reaccumulation Cycle, which could lead to a breakout.
- If the UTAD acts as resistance, we could see a "creek" and "spring" phase in the Reaccumulation cycle. This looks like a distinct pattern to me where the price starts to stabilize and curve. There is also an optional "spring" that stops out the bulls one last time for the big run. This is a dangerous area though, because if the cycle is a distribution one, the price will follow that orange line.
So in my opinion there is still not enough data to tell exactly where bitcoin where go from here, but it is nice to understand the likely pathways using Wyckoff, which has been reliable in the past.
A good Wyckoff article can be found here if you want to read more: phemex.com/academy/wyckoff-accumulation
Comment:
Because the chart is so compressed, here's a zoomed in picture of the important bits:
