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Bitcoin Bull Flag Triangle Target 22.000, Part 6

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So far things have been somewhat as planned, but must say, the consolidation (the bull flag on the right), is normally way too small in time. It did do that shake out move up as the blue line shows, but also smaller than i thought it would do. Was thinking more of 19.7/19.8K on the upside and going lower towards 18.9/18.8k on the downside. So more of a 800/1000 point size drop instead of just 550 points.

There are 2 things to say about this:

1) The tricks are not done yet, the shake out's to confuse bears and bulls around the highs. So giving hope to the bulls but in the meantime giving bears some confidence as well that the 19.5/19.8 zone is TOO strong to break. Yesterday's move was too small to scare the bulls and also too small to give confidence to the bears. Why i am afraid the tricks might not be over yet, but i could be overthinking this as well. Why would it ever be easy, wouldn't be any fun right :)
2) There simply aren't enough bears around to sell or short at these prices, which could be a sign of strength. I don't like this assumption that much, because it would be too simple AND it would not fit the picture of this huge 20K level.

Since the 20K has been the biggest level for the whole crypto world for 3 years now, we should see high volume at the breakout (assuming it will break). So i do expect to see some real fights this week, that is assuming we will see at least one more serious fight to break the 2020 highs.

There was this person from my home country Holland a few years ago, think it was end of 2017, who quite his job, sold everything he got (house, cars etc.) and bought Bitcoin (think around 300/400K EUR) with everything he got (think he was a lawyer). Since he and his family lived in a camper/trailer i think. Anyway, he was/is convinced of Bitcoin back then and i think still is. Talking about 100K prices and maybe even more. Never really researched it, so i could be wrong about some facts. Anyway, week ago a friend told me, this same person sold a part of his Bitcoins . Didn't look it up to confirm it, also don't know if he sold 10% or 90% of his Bitcoins . But maybe it does say something, because this person was traveling through Europe to promote Bitcoin , think even was a speaker at some places as well. So a convinced fan of Bitcoin , selling Bitcoins in maybe the biggest/best rally since the ATH. I think it's even more convincing than the ATH rally, because then it was mostly retail money.

Of course this doesn't say a lot on what the market will do coming weeks/months, but it could say, that the 20K won't break within a few weeks. It has been almost 3 weeks now since the first time we reached the ATH levels end of November. Maybe it will take a few more weeks or more even, for all of these kind of people, who regretted to never have sold back then, to at least sell some now and cash out a part. For this theory, it should mean, we should not see any big dumps anymore. Think the one from 2 weeks ago, should have been the biggest. So even if this triangle on the left fails, think we should NOT see a big drop.

Without getting to far ahead of things, for now, lets keep it simple. The red line on the left is still in play, as mentioned above i am not convinced of that shake out move. Also want to see the 19.7/8 getting touched as well. The 19.5 got touched yesterday which is a good sign for the bulls, but now we want to see that bulls are not scared to touch the highs from 2 weeks ago around 19.8. Again the chart from the previous analysis:
I said it should not drop towards the triangle support too soon, because that would be a bad sign. Now if it can stay at these levels another day. If then after tomorrow would drop towards the triangle support in a slow pace, think bulls would then still have the upper hand.



Also think, if we would go up from here, a shake out move like the red line is still possible. Not saying it will happen, because maybe yesterday's move was already it, just saying to keep an eye out for it. Think max low should be around 18.700 from now on. The 19.050 is a clear support level now, so bulls need to hold that one.
In the scenario that the 20K breaks, there will always be the danger of a failed breakout. So if it breaks, bulls want to see a strong, high volume push up without any big drops on the low time frame. Normally should see a big daily green candle of like 1.000 points. If that happens and we see a close around the highs, then more bullish action should be likely to happen after that day. So important not to see any big weakness during the breakout.

Bears first of all want to see a break of 19.050ish, which is a very easy stop hunt zone. If that would happen, they need to see a fast drop towards 18.7 and break below 18.600. If that would happen coming day or 2, then you could be in good shape for the coming week or so.





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