BTC: Macro perspective: Scenario 2

Please see linked analysis for an explanation.

This is the scenario I'm leaning towards currently.

Comment:

24 Apr 2021 11:46:21: In all these scenarios, BTC is still within its bull run. They would all be dramatically invalidated if the top is already in and BTC is really stepping down into a mini bear market. It's a very hard call. For me personally, it's not about BTC, but the fate of alt season. As we can see on the BTC.D chart, we're range bound right now between two historical support/resistance levels. What happens next really depends on what BTC is doing. So is it taking a breather, and grabbing liquidity, or is it over? Lots of signals, particularly the RSI, suggest a bearish move. And sentiment would probably suggest one too. Will BTC surprise us and continue upward? We're going to find out together.

Comment:

24 Apr 2021 12:09:02: Hidden bullish divergence on the 4-hourly RSI. Still expect another leg down, certainly, but this is a bullish sign that the base might not be as low as some are projecting (i.e., low 40s, 30s etc).

Comment:

24 Apr 2021 12:16:27: Money flow index on the weekly not looking so great. An ascending trendline that previously acted as support, giving BTC a hike in price level every time it touched it, appears now to be acting as resistance.

Comment:

24 Apr 2021 12:24:32: On the higher weekly timeframe, confluence with the 20 EMA (in white) approaching the projected intersection point.

Comment:

24 Apr 2021 12:58:05: The latest CME Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows an increase in the percentage balance between short and long positions. Compared to the previous week, where 150 longs were withdrawn and 23 shorts were added, leaving more shorts than longs overall (8,253 compared to 5,788) and a percentage difference between them of +42.5% in favor of shorts, this week saw 641 longs withdrawn and 834 shorts withdrawn, leaving 5,147 longs and 7,419 shorts, and a percentage difference between these of +44.1% in favor of shorts. So a slight proportional increase in shorts. That said, more shorts were withdrawn than longs. So nothing particularly conclusive here, but interesting to note. COT data is always a week behind.