I could be wrong. But piecing together a series of charts I've been exploring, this is the simple and stripped down version of what I see currently.
1) BTC is working its way up a macro Fibonacci that goes back to 09-11 December.
2) The 21 February correction formed a top and a base of a channel of a seven-wave movement to what I think will be BTC's bull run peak, at around 83.6 — if it can get up there.
I know that's a conservative projection relative to many others.
It's based on an analysis of previous BTC bull runs, and confluence with other indicators, like regression bands.
3) BTC is printing the sixth wave now, and will — I believe — tap the bottom of the channel, at around 48.5 to 49, depending on when it makes it there.
This projection is in part based on assuming that the 18 April downside impulse reached the 0.702 Fibonacci, and mapping the further downside move based on analysing the beginning of the 21 February correction.
4) To me it makes sense that we see a tap of the bottom (February) followed by a tap of the midline of the channel (25 March) followed by a tap of the bottom (now) before BTC reaches up to full extension and completes the seventh wave.
5) The seventh wave will have seven waves within it.
The projection here of the peaks is a rough estimate only, and obviously the timeframe cannot be determined.
6) More or less, we can use the macro Fibonacci to chart BTC's near-term course. One step forward, two steps back. Levels are broken into, and BTC falls down into previous levels, or below, before the next reach up.
7) Given what we've been seeing this past six weeks in terms of BTC's momentum, I think this massive liquidity grab is also the only way BTC can reach up to full extension.
8) In my view, this movement is simply part of BTC's continuing bull run, though it's a dramatic move down.
Alts will continue to bleed, offering great buy opportunities ahead of the last haul to BTC's peak.
9) IMPORTANT: If BTC reaches 47.7, I think this whole scenario would be in question, and at that point I'd be obliged to flip my analysis and start looking towards another popular take, which would be a two-peak bull run, with the local top already in, and BTC entering what could be two to three months of a bear market within the larger bull market, before resuming its upside path later in the year and reaching much higher highs than I think it can reach now.
So I'm leaving a question mark on the title of this chart for this reason.
Each trader must weigh these scenarios. Especially anyone trading on leverage.
A bear market now, and for any extended period of time, would hurt alts a lot.
Be careful and make your own assessment.
And good luck.
Feel free to comment.
1) BTC is working its way up a macro Fibonacci that goes back to 09-11 December.
2) The 21 February correction formed a top and a base of a channel of a seven-wave movement to what I think will be BTC's bull run peak, at around 83.6 — if it can get up there.
I know that's a conservative projection relative to many others.
It's based on an analysis of previous BTC bull runs, and confluence with other indicators, like regression bands.
3) BTC is printing the sixth wave now, and will — I believe — tap the bottom of the channel, at around 48.5 to 49, depending on when it makes it there.
This projection is in part based on assuming that the 18 April downside impulse reached the 0.702 Fibonacci, and mapping the further downside move based on analysing the beginning of the 21 February correction.
4) To me it makes sense that we see a tap of the bottom (February) followed by a tap of the midline of the channel (25 March) followed by a tap of the bottom (now) before BTC reaches up to full extension and completes the seventh wave.
5) The seventh wave will have seven waves within it.
The projection here of the peaks is a rough estimate only, and obviously the timeframe cannot be determined.
6) More or less, we can use the macro Fibonacci to chart BTC's near-term course. One step forward, two steps back. Levels are broken into, and BTC falls down into previous levels, or below, before the next reach up.
7) Given what we've been seeing this past six weeks in terms of BTC's momentum, I think this massive liquidity grab is also the only way BTC can reach up to full extension.
8) In my view, this movement is simply part of BTC's continuing bull run, though it's a dramatic move down.
Alts will continue to bleed, offering great buy opportunities ahead of the last haul to BTC's peak.
9) IMPORTANT: If BTC reaches 47.7, I think this whole scenario would be in question, and at that point I'd be obliged to flip my analysis and start looking towards another popular take, which would be a two-peak bull run, with the local top already in, and BTC entering what could be two to three months of a bear market within the larger bull market, before resuming its upside path later in the year and reaching much higher highs than I think it can reach now.
So I'm leaving a question mark on the title of this chart for this reason.
Each trader must weigh these scenarios. Especially anyone trading on leverage.
A bear market now, and for any extended period of time, would hurt alts a lot.
Be careful and make your own assessment.
And good luck.
Feel free to comment.
Comment:
20 Apr 2021 12:23:18: This would be a major concern. Possible death cross on the 4hr chart, perhaps in the next four to seven days. If this were to form, a larger drop below 49 would be increasingly likely. Death crosses do tend to play out, and could see a drop in the range of 30%. The way I have estimated the cross is obviously rough and ready, but I just want to illustrate a point, and not that this convergence should be watched closely. Unlike February, these EMAs are close together. Consolidation where BTC is right now might be the only way to avoid this cross. Among the many signals in play, this is certainly a bearish one.
Comment:
20 Apr 2021 12:36:10: The DXY is obviously a chart to keep an eye on. Probable upside bounce incoming at some point. BTC and the DXY are inversely correlated.
Comment:
20 Apr 2021 12:43:09: And the BTC Dominance chart, of course. Currently finding support on a major trendline that goes back to April 2019 and September 2018, as well as seeing a lot of action in mid-2017. Consolidation or an upside move from here would be bullish for BTC.
Comment:
20 Apr 2021 13:09:03: Caution for what could well be a green day today. 60, I think, is what really needs to be reached, to start to acknowledge that this last dump may simply have been a black swan event.
Comment:
20 Apr 2021 17:14:05: Cryptoquant reporting sizable spike in BTC inflow to all exchanges. Current value 10k, compared to peaks around 8.2k at the time of the 18 April dump.
Comment:
21 Apr 2021 08:42:55: BTC moves slowly, but I would have expected some kind of push further down by now. For reasons explained on this new chart, I'm beginning to think that 49k is unlikely:
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