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BITCOIN hit $50k! Another mark hit! Again it's for all HODLers!

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Today the cryptocurrency leader touched $50000, which is arguably not only a technical but also a very key psychological level. As I've done with my December 16, 2020 post (see chart below), I will dedicate this idea as well to all HODLers!


The question that must be on everyone's mind after reaching such an important landmark, whether Bitcoin will extend this rise or start pulling back. To answer this, I have used the pattern that I used on the December 16 post, the Fibonacci Channel. As you see back then, it accurately projected that a break above the 1.2 Fibonacci level would bring a test of the 1.618 extension , which delivered.

Right now the model suggests that since BTCUSD closed one 1W candle above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension , it will move forward to test the 2.0 Fib ext. The reason is the historic price action itself which, as you see on the chart, when the 0.618 gets rejected but the price remains supported within the 0.382 - 0.618 zone (no candle closings outside), the it rebounds to the next 1.0 interval (blue arrow). The 2.0 Fib ext is at the moment around 65k but projected price action can see it get hit at 70k if the rise is slow and takes up to 1 month to be filled.

If the 2.0 level is rejected (no 1W candle closings above it), then we can see a correction back to the 1.618 - 1.382 zone, as it happened during June - November, 2020, and then a rise (in the form of the second part of the Parabolic Phase) to the Bull Cycle's Peak (new ATH ).

On a different occasion (i.e. if BTC closes one 1W cande above the 2.0 Fib ext), the December 2020 bullish leg (black arrow) may be repeated and see an equally aggressive test of the 2.618 Fibonacci extension within $100-150k.

At the same time, we shouldn't ignore some key elements, derived by comparing this Cycle (2018-date) to the previous one (2014-2017). As you see from the chart below, BTC is currently at the same level (1.5 Fibonacci extension from the previous All Time High) it was on June 2017, halfway through the parabolic phase of the 2014-2017 Cycle. The 1W LMACD was currently squeezed in a similar fashion as June 2017. But with the 1W RSI testing the 96.500 level which has been the Resistance since November 2013 (which was the peak of Bitcoin's first Cycle), unless we are currently at the peak of the current (post 2018) Cycle (unlikely based on all logarithmic models), that means that BTC is now more bullish than ever. Even though the 2014-2017 Cycle peaked on the 2.382 Fibonacci extension , the current may exceed that (2.382 is at $240k).


In any case, what's important is today and that is reaching a level that was long awaited and well deserved to Bitcoin investors, who had the insight to buy low, keep through the years of the Bear Cycle and accumulation phases and now be in the comfortable position to enjoy some profit at least. Well deserved my fellow HODLers indeed!

Are you expecting $65-70k that quickly as this model suggests? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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