botje11

Bitcoins short term bullish momentum dropping

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In an update i did a few hours ago, i mentioned that we are likely seeing momentum drop on the short term. Highs are getting less high now past 24 hours. Which usually results in a wedge , but as we can see on the right, it looks more like a channel than a wedge .

Also on the left, i have drawn a wedge , i do not like it because the push from 7000 to 8000 is too strong and big to be considered as we wedge . The resistance line does seems to be a legit one, having been touched several times past days and getting rejection. Also not a real bearish sign, since we had an insane rally already, so seeing some rejections and profit taking is completely normal.

Only sensible thing i can say for a high that might be closing in, is when looking at the volume . On the left chart we can see it is dropping, but when i look at other exchanges, the difference is clearly less. So not really convinced yet of volume showing bearish divergence. In case we see another push to like 8500ish, think we might be able to judge the volume then much better. If that one becomes lower again, also at other exchanges, than will likely have set a temp high again. Doesn't mean THE high is set, but more like the high at 7600 and the drop to 6800. We have seen it took the market less than 2 days to recover and rally another 1500 points.

Bitcoin is extremely strong lately, just no stopping it. Each dip is getting bought up like we will never get a price like that again. It's like 2017 all over again :). At the moment we have a resistance around 8200/40. If that one breaks, we could be headed towards the 8500. This 8200/40 is similar to yesterday's 8000 after that drop to 7630. At the moment, a serious attempt is being made again.

Even if we drop a 1000ish points, doesn't mean it's all over again. After such a big rally the past weeks, it's like 80% chance to get to see a retest close to the high again. So lets say we drop to 7000/6500, chances are big to see at least 7500/8000 getting tested again. Normally i want to say i am sure about it, but this rally has been so extreme and came out of nowhere, who knows what can happen on the other side.

Alts are growing a bit, xrp finally made a big rally today as well. Alts are not great yet, still not convinced of them tbh. Think we need to see Bitcoin consolidate between 8500/7000 for like a week or 2/3. Getting things back to normal again. If we see that happen and alt market getting back their confidence, only then will i really start to think the bear market might have ended. Until then, i am just seeing this as an insane short squeeze rally. Also as mentioned a few days Friday, is there was a way to think of an end of the bear market, could not have been better than this. Except for the weak alts of course.

I won't be making a longer term analysis until all of this cools down. Past week i have seen many people referring to 2018 prices, but IMO those have no value at all the past week. The market is in madness mode, think it has become clear that nobody is watching previous levels. There is no time to watch and think about them these days LOL. Only when things cool down, when volume drops again to like 4 bil on Bitmex. Only then can we start to think of past levels and do a bit more normal TA again.

So very important thing to watch now, is the volume . If we see another high towards 8500ish, but with clearly less volume , than big chance it will make a big correction down again. On the support side, we have 8100, 7900 and 7600 (all with some wiggle room of course). The channel on the right seems to be legit as well and the thick resistance line on the left also.




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Previous analysis:

Comment: The curved lines sometimes work amazingly. Looks like it maybe broke already, but it's a the 1m chart, so not really reliable during this high volume market. A push above 8200/25 would invalidate the idea.

Now we have a possible double top at 8225. If the 8150ish breaks, the curved line could be real. If it holds, it could turn into a flag again. These low time frames with this extreme volume, is a lot of noise. I use this a lot and it gives me perfect entries and exists sometimes, but i also no when it's a bit unreliable, which it has been the past few days. So i am not going to give it a lot of value.

Comment: This market is just super strong. Again, like we have seen often past 2 weeks, it just doesn't want to drop. Usually a sign.

Comment: Looks like we might have a range now, 8100 and 8230
Comment: The second curved line broke and dropped 200 points, but at the moment already making quite the bounce again. But, not in the clear yet. We have again tested the support of the channel, which is usually a bearish sign. But this market has been so crazy, it's not easy to feel comfortable to think it will break. So that yellow wedge look a like might help. If this bounce turns into one and gets stays below the first red resistance, it will probably break if it drops to the 7950/7900 low again. If it breaks, we could see a fast profit taking drop. 7600ish is a big support, but if we see massive profit taking, it won't hold. So it will depend on the volume to be able to judge that.

If the 8130ish breaks, it will get more neutral up until the 8230ish. Above that level, we could see a move to the 8500 even.

I am still patiently waiting for a nice entry to short it, or to see a nice drop first to go long again. This zone between 7800/8400 is not something i want to put my in, just too much noise still.

Comment: Folowing that wedge, but no acceleration yet. Should happen soon, otherwise it might get bought up again. 8000/8020 is a small support now as well. If it drops slowly, it might hold.

Comment: Nice, something again that does follow the “rules”, the wedge and the channel played out perfectly. But this bounce is big very again. Almost giving the feeling like we had at the 5k, where Drops we’re getting bought up very fast. So we have a possible top formation now, for the short term that is. So maybe we can see a few more drops coming day or 2 and maybe we can prepare ourselves for another move up. For the mid term I still can’t give a good outlook. Still need more info to go on. Think it’s premature to think the high is set already.
Comment: We might have another wedge here on Bitcoin. Usually should make another attempt towards the 8200ish. But at the moment already testing it's support.

Not really coinciding with the strong alts from past 2 days, but bitcoin has been doing it's own thing for weeks already, so it's not a mist IMO.
7880 has been a bounce level several times now. So if that one breaks, we could see it dump much more. to the 7600/7400. But so far the market is still strong, but i would keep a close eye out for the 7880ish. If it breaks and volume increases, we could see some panic profit taking

Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:

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Isn't this a typical Bart pattern?
+1 Reply
@cd1603, i bet
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Thank you David for such a detailed piece of work. Whatever the short term momentum may be, it would be constructive for all of us to consider how such parabolic movements have traded in the past.

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Maybe a little head and shoulders pattern forming? We might have maxed out but ETH is still going through the roof right now so we're watching to see if BTC will get a second wind :)

Long trade up 49.43% this morning and looking to possibly scale more out soon. Wish the best for everyone!

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ETH pushing upward hard this morning, as well as other alts. May aid in getting BTC back on the uptrend.
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Well, in the past it used to be that altcoins would moon if bitcoin went sideways. So why not predict it will just move sideways a bit more instead?
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Great analysis David, thank you for keeping us updated!
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Really like your idea's!

Can we compare the past with the future?

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