Binance halts BTC withdrawals and spooks the market

Bitcoin futures closed slightly below the $30,000 mark (at $29,910) last Friday. However, the price took a nosedive over the weekend as Binance temporarily halted Bitcoin withdrawals and transfers, citing an overwhelming number of pending transactions. On Monday, Bitcoin futures opened at $29,105 and continued lower toward the $28,300 price tag where they currently trade. We pay close attention to MACD on the daily time frame, which continues to develop a bearish structure. In addition to that, we observe volume levels, which are considerably lower compared to a recent period when Bitcoin was moving sharply higher (in so-called spikes). That is an interesting development as the addresses with more than 100 and 1000 Bitcoins in the balance are not seen growing in number in the past two weeks; meanwhile, the number of addresses with much smaller balances continues to grow, suggesting that retail continues to accumulate. We previously expressed our beliefs that it is very likely that we will see a massive rag-pull being played on retail investors, and that continues to be the case. Our stance remains unchanged as we believe the most deceitful bear market rally continues to unravel. Accordingly, our price target for BTCUSD stays at $15,000 and $13,000.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin's continuous futures. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish case in the short term. The same applies if MACD performs a crossover below 0.

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD across various exchanges. We would like to point out the similarity in volume trends on all these exchanges. Volume dropped significantly compared to the two previous major legs up (from around $17,000 to $25,000 and $19,500 to $31 000).

Illustration 1.03

The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.

Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral

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