Ascending Wedge
Hey all! I hope everyone is having a great Friday!
SUMMARY:
Price continues to move up towards $9.3 USD before getting REJECTED AT THE 100SMA (4HR). This rejection will send us down to find support on the 61.8% FIB RT ($8776) where we will consolidate before making a HUGE move UP.
ENTRY: SHORT $9195, TP1: $9K, TP2: $8.85, TP3: $8.785
It looks as if we’re heading towards the completion of an ASCENDING WEDGE as we have the upper resistance and lower support converging RIGHT AT THE NECKLINE (RED HORIZONTAL RAY) of the MACRO CUP AND HANDLE we’ve been forming since OCTOBER.
Now.. Some things to consider:
We are finding resistance on the MACRO 1:1 Gann Fan (highlighted in GREEN). We appear to be following this resistance line up.
The estimated convergence of the support and resistance trend lines coincides with a 50% FIB RT line drawn from the $10.5K peek reached back on 13FEB. Breaking down off of this line makes sense as the 0.5 FIB RT is typically pretty strong S/R.
VOLUME: We appear to remaining stagnant here without any signs of increasing BULL VOL, indicating we’re more likely to break lower. Slope of the VWAP is also looking more bearish than bullish.
% BREAK DOWN is about 70% of the time
BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the RSI - we are showing higher highs with lower highs on the RSI and STOCH RSI. The MACD is also looking bearish as the HISTOGRAMS are narrowing, however the SIGNAL line appears to have began to slope UP on this 4H TIME FRAME.
100SMA - At the apex of this ASCENDING WEDGE, REJECTION from this MA should be what initiates the MOVE DOWN.
LOOKING AT SMALLER TF: We are showing similar signs from indicators. CHALKIN MF is decreasing, indicating a higher probability of breaking DOWN.
VPVR - We look to have support at the coinciding with the 61.8% FIB RT ($8776)
LARGER TF: 1D MACD SIGNAL appears to be heading towards a BULLISH CROSS, however we have BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the HISTOGRAM. However, MOMENTUM could be said to be shifting towards BULLISH, but this could be indicative of the move UP after we break DOWN of this BEARISH PATTERN.
COMPLETION of this ASCENDING WEDGE and a break DOWN, will confirm the INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS we are currently trending towards and could be the LEG UP WE NEED to BREAK THE NECKLINE OF THE CUP AND HANDLE.
My play:
Waiting for break below the bottom SUPPORT LINE -just in case we get an influx of RETAIL cash from say… SOUTH KOREA, INDIA, or FRANCE which COULD send flip this BEARISH expectation on its head.
Following the completion of this pattern, I will be preparing to enter a LONG in anticipation of completing the INVERSE HEAD and SHOULDERS which should also give us the MOMENTUM we need to begin the BREAKOUT of the CUP AND HANDLE.
Thank you for taking the time to check out my trade! Please comment below if you agree/disagree!
Hey all! I hope everyone is having a great Friday!
SUMMARY:
Price continues to move up towards $9.3 USD before getting REJECTED AT THE 100SMA (4HR). This rejection will send us down to find support on the 61.8% FIB RT ($8776) where we will consolidate before making a HUGE move UP.
ENTRY: SHORT $9195, TP1: $9K, TP2: $8.85, TP3: $8.785
It looks as if we’re heading towards the completion of an ASCENDING WEDGE as we have the upper resistance and lower support converging RIGHT AT THE NECKLINE (RED HORIZONTAL RAY) of the MACRO CUP AND HANDLE we’ve been forming since OCTOBER.
Now.. Some things to consider:
We are finding resistance on the MACRO 1:1 Gann Fan (highlighted in GREEN). We appear to be following this resistance line up.
The estimated convergence of the support and resistance trend lines coincides with a 50% FIB RT line drawn from the $10.5K peek reached back on 13FEB. Breaking down off of this line makes sense as the 0.5 FIB RT is typically pretty strong S/R.
VOLUME: We appear to remaining stagnant here without any signs of increasing BULL VOL, indicating we’re more likely to break lower. Slope of the VWAP is also looking more bearish than bullish.
% BREAK DOWN is about 70% of the time
BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the RSI - we are showing higher highs with lower highs on the RSI and STOCH RSI. The MACD is also looking bearish as the HISTOGRAMS are narrowing, however the SIGNAL line appears to have began to slope UP on this 4H TIME FRAME.
100SMA - At the apex of this ASCENDING WEDGE, REJECTION from this MA should be what initiates the MOVE DOWN.
LOOKING AT SMALLER TF: We are showing similar signs from indicators. CHALKIN MF is decreasing, indicating a higher probability of breaking DOWN.
VPVR - We look to have support at the coinciding with the 61.8% FIB RT ($8776)
LARGER TF: 1D MACD SIGNAL appears to be heading towards a BULLISH CROSS, however we have BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the HISTOGRAM. However, MOMENTUM could be said to be shifting towards BULLISH, but this could be indicative of the move UP after we break DOWN of this BEARISH PATTERN.
COMPLETION of this ASCENDING WEDGE and a break DOWN, will confirm the INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS we are currently trending towards and could be the LEG UP WE NEED to BREAK THE NECKLINE OF THE CUP AND HANDLE.
My play:
Waiting for break below the bottom SUPPORT LINE -just in case we get an influx of RETAIL cash from say… SOUTH KOREA, INDIA, or FRANCE which COULD send flip this BEARISH expectation on its head.
Following the completion of this pattern, I will be preparing to enter a LONG in anticipation of completing the INVERSE HEAD and SHOULDERS which should also give us the MOMENTUM we need to begin the BREAKOUT of the CUP AND HANDLE.
Thank you for taking the time to check out my trade! Please comment below if you agree/disagree!
