investigator
Long

BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" Steady as she goes

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
177 4 3
Some positive technical action has prompted me to draw some future projections (Blue dash). First what has happened:

The pull back 4 weeks ago was the second recent and 4th test overall of solid support at $338 (black line). $257 is where panic will start if action dips that far down. Yellow arrows mark the major capitulation level marking $135 as the absolute bottom of the current market action. The official panic zone is between $275 and $135. The blue arrow is a significant change of character where the market turned from long term bear to long term bull . Note the huge volume was equal to the capitulation bottom volume at the bottom of the bear market. The red dash is the current rally vector of short term support.

The future: The scheduled resistance, blue dash lines, and the previous resistance, blue solid lines, are generated from Fibonacci time analysis. For nearly 2 years this market has trended perfectly to Fibonacci analysis in the time domain. There is no evidence that this will change in the future. Note how the market corrects at the time interval resistance lines. I expect the market to continue the rally up the red trend line and a long term correction to start in June.

Warnings: The red dash is the current technical rally trend. Black swan fundamental events can over power technical trends. This can be seen in the previous solid red trend where the black swan event was the sudden negative tantrum of one of the inner circle technologists maintaining the hash chain. His ego exploded and the shrapnel caused momentary panic selling. Time heals all wounds and the red hash is the resumption of the same rally on a slightly different vector,

Fundamentals: The Chinese currency war. Devaluation of the Yuan will cause positive support to BTC price. The Chinese economy is a house of cards. Their major bank assets are all upside down; The US banks in Texas are about to implode. Low oil             prices have laid waste to fracking and wild cat loans to frackers are worthless as bankruptcy filings show at best a 10% asset confiscation return on bad debt. When these banks topple, it will cause a rather large hole in the US banking structure. Canada is experiencing the same situation and their currency has dropped 30% in value in recent months. Did you see that 60 minutes interview with Trudeau? Not a peep about how he intends to pay for his increase in socialism with a lot less oil             money. What a fluff piece.; Lastly, WAR. Lots of it coming. Stay tuned...

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I prognosticated June for a correction. I should elaborate. I am assuming the trajectory of the rally follows the red dash line. The exact timing of the contraction is dependant on how fast the dashed blue line is reached. If the rally moves higher faster, then the correction will start sooner. So, a better projection statement would be a range of April to June for the start of a contraction in price.
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coinwatcher
9 months ago
so what's the top of the coming rally going to be? 550?
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investigator PRO coinwatcher
9 months ago
Heavy resistance starts at $550 on the weekly chart. There is significant short term resistance at $450 on my daily chart. Trends have a way of breaking. Some central bank farts or the Saudi's use a tactical nuclear weapon. The world is full of Black Swans. One of them is the internet breaks. Then what?
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Click that update arrow at the right side of the plot! Still on course although the daily chart resistance at the $450 to $460 range is being a bit sticky. This rally has been in progress for nearly a year and it's starting to act like it's in the late stages as volume decreases with new highs.
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