The evidence: On the BTCCNY chart the in this rally was through the roof. This has tailed off while price continues to climb. This last push is by uniformed stragglers and the informed are about to eat their lunch. On the BTCUSD chart, the of this devaluation rally was almost non-existent. The US investors are either completely demoralized or distracted or both. I'm sure the Bitfinex hack pushed many US investors out of the market. Nevertheless, the real indicator to look at is the oscillator shown in the graph above. It is screaming TOP TOP TOP as what little USD there was has tailed off to nothing.
The Technicals: I drew a long term months and months ago based on Fibonacci analysis. This is represented by the blue hash line. The price has reached this resistance. So how do I know the resistance is real? I don't. It's an educated guess. If I am right, this rally will correct back to the red hash rally . This can either be a slow bleed (likely) or a quick retraction (unlikely). My call a couple months ago for $750 by February is still in play. While a penetration into resistance can still happen, the weak in the USD market and the dropping in the CNY market are strong indicators that a penetration, if it happens, will be short lived. This picture could change in February. From here on out, the total market quantity of BTC will flatten out as minors start to go off-line and transition into full time transfer agent servicing. This will be the foundation for further growth in the value of a BTC . Right now the USD is strong. Trump may succeed with his mandate and change is in the wind but the long term problems of the unfunded liability of the US federal government are YUGER. The cannot raise interest rates without destroying the federal government budget. To continue fundingg deficit spending, more dollars must be created. The more dollars that exist, the less they will buy. This is called . Hyperinflation is showing up in a few places, real estate, health care costs, and higher education costs, and it will expand to other areas. In the long term USD strength is a short term delusion.