BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" Bulls Bears and Swans Oh My!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In the event you were infatuated by BREXIT the big news was the opportunistic Chinese took the opportunity to devalue the Yuan on the same day. Under intense journalistic distraction, no one accused the Chinese of currency manipulation. This event makes it extremely clear that BTC can be used to foretell big FOREX moves. It foretold the giant Rand devaluation and now the Yuan. Insiders in China were aware of the impending devaluation and moved big money in and out of BTC as a value store. Relative to precious metal, BTC is a faster, easier, useful tool for instantaneous shelter from central bank moves.

The China move creates a bull flag formation with a target price in the $900 neighbourhood. When? Watch volume . It has tailed off. When it picks up it will be the start of the second phase move. My time line projections suggest end of 4th quarter, 1st quarter 2017. New upside resistance is the temporal blue dash line at $800. Support short term is the blue solid at current level and long term is the red dash. A drop through $475 will result in PANIC. I have moved the PANIC ZONE up a level.

Black Swans are still fluttering about and the bears are in hibernation. It's interesting to note, BREXIT, civil war in Europe, new dictatorship in Turkey, warnings about Nuclear conflagrations between Putin and NATO, all have had very little impact on the current value of BTC . War in Eastern Europe may affect the operation of two major BTC exchanges, BitStamp and BTCe. If they are planning for Armageddon then a relocation would be a seamless event. If not, major disruption in the BTC market will occur. The halving was a non-event although it points to BTC as a sound value store. There are serious world-wide financial problems looming on the horizon.

The Euro is simply doomed. When? It will be an overnight event like the Lehman Brothers failure. If any large German banks fail, the party is over.... and at least one is on the edge.

In the US the massive unreported problem is public workers pension imbalance. It's $4 Trillion with a T out of whack. Massive numbers of retirees will drain away all available municipal tax funds. This is simply a pot hole that won't be filled. Illinois will be the first to fall. California will be the second or third. Trump may build the wall but there will be devastation on both sides of it. If Hillary wins, the debt will be the least of our problems.

Stay tuned...

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