$BTCUSD expecting 11.800 as decision point

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After recent bounces, I'm expecting more upside towards previous tops around 11.800. That could be a key level for longer term moves....either break out to the upside or 1 more leg down, forming a flat correction .
Short term key level is the down trend line (log scale), if it breaks that trendline , I'm expecting more bullish sentiment wich coud push the price more up towards 11-12k.

Short term: right now doing a correction which should be wave 4. When we see a succesfull bounce from the area 7600-7800, we'll be heading towards the down trend line which can act as a resistance. Forming another correction there is very likely IMHO, before we get (hopefully) a break out towards top of the flat pattern.

Once reaching the top, its decision time: either 1 more leg down or a push straight through that level towards 16k.
If we see 1 more leg down, I'm expecting a big push to the upside after that.
Comment: short term update: finally dipped towards the blue box (possible bounce area) and slightly missed it and already bouncing.
Not sure yet if this was the dip but for now looks promising.
If the bounce can sustain, next stop is 9k
Comment: Update: still on track for 9k.
We're nearing the long term down trend line on log scale. Could be tough fight but I still expect a break out.

Comment: Reached first target and correcting now
Comment: Correction formed this pattern and broke out to the upside.
We are still on track for 12k
I updating more frequent on Twitter
Comment: Yesterday, BTC had a brutal dump and it made me reconsider my short term view. Long term I remain bullish with first stop at 11.8-12k.

The correction from 10k is way stronger as I expected....Yesterdays dump made a new low which make me think that it opened a new extension to the downside. This would be an ABC correction which target area is 8100-8400. If we manage to bounce from there (=also fib 0,5 level), next leg up should be exactly in the area which I see as decision point since beginning of this thread.
Comment: Update: bouncing from the blue box and we just hit the target box for 3
Right now forming leg 4 before we start for the 5th leg.
Leg 5 could end near the trendline, bouncing off and correcting that whole cycle.
Depending on how that correction goes, we might see the start of a new cycle towards 10k, but too early to say.

Comment: After some choppy days, BTC broke the downtrend and seems that leg 2 is in place. Correction was deeper as expected but we're still on the route to 11.8k.
Downtrend broken which indicates the start of 3rd leg

Comment: Well, well.....scary times we had! Let's do an update as I think the bigger structure of the chart above is still valid.
We never reached 11.8 and already failed at 10 to make that leg down as described in the OP. From that time on I've been looking for a deep move towards 4k and even past days it all looked as we were in a corrective move in a downtrend.
Looking at the last days, we notice a reversal in market sentiment and checking the Daily chart we see some strong candles wich give me the idea we're not anymore in a corrective move before more down but start of a new uptrend where 11.8k might be key level again.
First important resistance level is around 7.8. We might see some correction before cracking that level. If the price fails hard at that level, we still could do a deeper correction towards 4k but chances for that are getting smaller and smaller.

TLDR: short term key level is 7800, once cracked we can look again at 11.8k
Why don't you consider 10k to be another key level? Wouldn't that be a resistance level before 11.8k?
A 05. Fib correction from the April lows is at $8.2k, while a 0.618 Fib correction is at $7.8k. So, I don't see a problem here... yet. That's the short term. In the long term, noone knows what will happen - we can only have an opinion.
My wedge looks very different to yours. That strong bullish candle on the 11th was the break.
malcr001 malcr001
I see OP is using log scale.
Where do you think correction would go? 8500?
Price just broke the 50 day MA
this is how i see it
+4 Reply
Great analysis!
zoomed in on a 1H TF for the short term retrace:
May I know what indicator is the last one, the now with green and red columns ?
@Ion343, MACD 4c
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