We have prepared for you all market breakdown on what is about to happen next.
With BTC we could see a nice pull-down to my 6650 area where we stopped and started consolidating for past few days. So what is about to happen next?
BTC could possibly re-test the major trend-line which is shown on chart and then start melting back to around 6600 area. But if BTC close below 6600 area second scenario will be in-play. Because of late institutional manipulation that we could have seen BTC spiked from around 7700 to 6600 in one week so momentum is in play more, and by that we are focused on these levels. We think that BTC could easily spike to around 5500$ in a 2 weeks, from where we could easily see 4500$ area and spike to around 3500$ area where also sits 200 on weekly. Do not be afraid. We do not think that BTC is dead. Actually we think that spike to around 3500$ area is the best thing, that can happen to BTC , because the major bull-run will happen after that. If we do spike to that area(3500$) we will go straight to 12,000$ in a couple weeks. But if BTC doesnt close below 6600 area there could be possible move to that 12K area. But we think that bear market is not over, because we break that major trend-line which was respected for too many times and BTC used to reversed from there. But not this time.
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What a day today! We closed daily below 6600 and by expectation we started to slowly melt to my marked zones.
By now we can see that BTC again smashed the 6455, which is a monthly support and we will se how next upcoming hours will play out here.
If we do close below this area i think the next huge sell-off will start and we can see another red leg.
So far on point. #safe.
I will keep you updated.
We spiked below MA and EMA on 1H chart, pushed through ressistance and close another hour candle litterally a pin point below it!
We still have one hour to close 4H chart to play this out to perfection. If we do close to my expectation, i think that the another sell of will start.
Everyone on the market is predicting that the bull run is about to kick in. So what i'm about to do? Im going hard short.
We have seen a squeeze to the shorts and re-test to some of my zones.
But the thing that i needed to think was. Many people think that the news from SEC that Ethereum is not a security was planned to start a bull-run.
Really, guys if you think about it. If they were planning to do such a thing the green candles would have to be much more stronger than they were. They didn't even managed to close above 6650, which gives me a pure sign. Was it planned to squeeze? Who knows. But it's clearly not sign of bull run. Just once again they give to public some thoughts that the bull run is about to start. From my point of view?
Another sign of institutional manipulation, nothing else. I do not change my mind over-night or some 200-300$ dollar moves. I'm always looking for long-term predictions. Like i did with 6600, what happen in-between it's sometimes hard to predict, but the final goal after all will happen. And one thing guys. You need to understand that when i'm calling shorts, it's not a signal to open 100x margin trade. I'm always keeping it between 5x-10x with 10% of capital. You need to learn, that the greed have no place in this market, or the market will rekt you.
So for now, nothing has changed.
-> 5800 .
So far so good.
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Close above 6420 today ->Possibly second arrow.
Shorts between 6700-6800
Just take a one step back and enjoy the short for now.
Set a take profit for 5800.
Shorts feeding well.
Today i want to focus on longer-perspective on what happened and what i think is next.
What actually happened in last few weeks?
By the daily perspective every time we had this huge red candles we got into daily wedge consolidation.(you can see that by red triangles).
And what i missed was that we had 27%(Where we could saw yesterdays bounce) Fib from daily perspective and i missed it from the mess which i had for past couple days from this stupid disease.
Need to get my shit together and focus more once again.
But what i wanted to tell you, that the every time BTC dips, he consolidate in something like wedge and trying to come to daily MA and EMA timeframe where BTC starts to consolidate into the end of the wedge and fall off the ground. There also come into the play 200 EMA on 1H chart, where almost everytime BTC gets before melting.(around 6455 this time)
Simple plan: Fall ->wedge->Green candles to get longs into the play and let public invest into alts -> Let them almost think that the bull-run is here -> Release fuds and dump the price.
You must see that most people are right now focused on daily trading with margin and we are no longer in the state that the public is focused on trading with alts.
But what can happen? I think that some regulation can come into this. Because 100x leverage on bitcoin is a huge messed out shit. As same thing happened to FX, where they lowered margin levels. Because if you think about it. The place where most people can loose money right now is margin trading and what does that mean? This is the place where big players can once again gain the biggest profits.
So the next plan? I think we can consolidate for couple days inside the wedge to around 6455 level. From where we can see another red candles to around 5500-5300.
Take profit. 5200.
Still remaining bearish even after last night pump which came into play.
We are still remaining in huge bearish zone until 7K will be hardly broken and closed atleast weekly above.
For now, i'm still keeping and adding even more to my short position.
Don't play yourself on these small moves. With this amount of volume, it's nothing more than pure manipulation.
So what happened? In last 2 weeks we hitted new years low as a fib -27% Retracement from previous formation. We could saw that a lot of buy orders went in and bears for few days dropped their power over the market. With such a retracement from new low, we had lot of buy orders and low volume and the BTC were able to push through EMA and EMA and get it's candle above, which turned into quick bullish momentum. I thought that the momentum would be quick and end up around 61,8 - 78,6 fib level, but we even touched 100 level of fibonacci. At one moment i was thinking that this could lead to re-test of EMA on weekly chart, but when i looked at the price action i spotted a bear signs on few spots, by that i had clear in my mind we can't stay here for too much longer. As you could see in the red zone in around 100% fibonacci we had few spikes above and tried to sustain the price above for next bullish momentum. We had too many attempts. We didn't manage to close above. Next huge sign was price action before closing weekly candle. You could saw the price tried to many times for higher closure, but once again we didn't managed to. That lead to me thinking that we are just in a another fake breakout. From 4H candle formation perspective, we were rising up to 200 EMA which we even managed to cross and close above. But? Didn't last too long enough. As i watched price action around 200 EMA from past, we had a strong bullish momentum every time we managed to close above. But not this time. The bearish momentum lead to close below and from there we could saw the huge red candles.(Second chart attached).
I'm spotting this moves with you for almost 2 months now, and calling this levels even before we hitted 10k and you already must understand in which kind of market are we in. Bear one. But i think it won't last that long. Remember how quick the bull run was last year. But if we do want this health and qucik moves in next bull run, we need to get to lowest level as possible. To get the investors money in. You always need to think like if you would manage 10m$, not 5K$. What would you do. Would you buy BTC for 10k, with that amount of money in this state? Of course not, if there is a possibility of that high down-side momentum.
Let me remind you levels, on which you want to take focus.
Take this area in between 3500-5500 as one of the greatest opportunity of your life to dollar cost average your coins.
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Also who the frick are Fcoin? Out of the blue with $2.7 Billion on Tether swaps in the last 24hrs?. Really? Something really sticks and doesn't smell right. I've never seen manipulation like this in the 4 years I've been trading BTC.
No way in hell legit institutional money will enter this space whilst this kind of stuff is going on. If you truly believe in crypto and not just a trader you should be concerned.
Also all these crypto news sites are definitely being paid to reprint the same bullish articles over and over. Something is not right with this space. I don't think it's just a bull trap, I think there is something really broken about this space. I can't see regulation fixing anything. How do you regulated something out of control on a global scale by anonymous (who the hell knows what jurisdiction) exchanges are trading at.