Here's a new macro view in response to the recently leaked news of a possible ETF approval by the end of Sep 2018 (nothing major, just some ex-SEC employee leaked stuff).
Bullish factors:
1. Wyckoff perspective: The whole 2018 Bear Market could be a Wyckoff accumulation trading range. We had a selling climax, automatic reaction, sign of weakness, secondary test, a low volume spring with a retest, a jump across the creek and now a BUEC with another ST could follow. Usually you buy the Spring Retest or BUEC pullback (if it retraces <50%). According to Wycoff, spring is not required but may be present in the accumulation range giving it away. We could go to around 9600. Right now we could be in a similar accumulation sideways range on a smaller scale.
2. Elliott Wave: Bulls are not done yet. Next targets for wave 3 are 8700, 8900. It seems that we need another leg up on a daily, otherwise the cycle in not complete, does not have a proper top.
A move to 9600 is also one of the possibilities in EW - a WXY flat upwards correction.
Bitcoin has stopped at 65% of the prev high. To definitively shift bias to bullish we need to break 8500.
Right now a bearish scenario with a return below 8000 could still play out. This pump could be wave X with wave Y going down.
3. MAs: We have breached all major MA resistance and Supply Lines except the D1 SMA200 at 8700. We're very close, SMA200 is declining and Bitcoin could break it soon after some sideways consolidation.
In 2014/2015 Bear Market there was a major sell-off after the 1st breach of D1 SMA200 with a bull run starting after the 2nd, so this is an important level.
The curving of all major MAs now allows for a Golden Cross on a Daily in late August. This could mean the start of a new bull run.
The MA Cross on D1 usually gives us on avg 4-6 months of a new trend in general. August will be the 5th month of bear. So, this could imply a bullish reversal.
4. Ichimoku: There's a weekly cloud with a flat bottom till Sep 17. We might not break it and bounce down.
5. Futures, ETF: July futures were obviously long, August futures will also likely be long due to rumors/expectations of a possible ETF approval as early as September.
So, we could have 1-2 green months ahead in BTFD mode.
On the other hand, this whole ETF thing could be just hype to manipulate the market into FOMO and dump bitcoins on retail investors.
They could always say that ETF rumors are fake and make the price drop towards the September futures, then in another leak say that ETF's coming in Q1 2019 and drive the price up again etc.
And this news could be aligned with the futures expiration dates. So, look out for any BTC ETF news - it will become a major price driver.
No major sell-off after July 27th will prove that the hype is real and not tailored to a particular futures expiration date.
6. The alts are slowly bleeding and dying. The alt season will begin once Bitcoin enters consolidation. Usually when Bitcoin's done, major alts will start their own accumulation cycles.
Right now the Bitcoin Dominance is 47%, the highest since Feb. Historically this aligns with extreme prices and RSI or a bull run and makes BTC the best performing asset, so people sell alts for BTC and sell BTC for alts after the bull run ends. Don't expect them all run at the same time.
7. How to spot a pump/bull run? Wait for a trend change on a daily after a cross of faster 12 and 26 EMAs. All smaller TFs should also cross to make it possible. Use a Golden cross to confirm.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Use at your own risk!
Bullish factors:
1. Wyckoff perspective: The whole 2018 Bear Market could be a Wyckoff accumulation trading range. We had a selling climax, automatic reaction, sign of weakness, secondary test, a low volume spring with a retest, a jump across the creek and now a BUEC with another ST could follow. Usually you buy the Spring Retest or BUEC pullback (if it retraces <50%). According to Wycoff, spring is not required but may be present in the accumulation range giving it away. We could go to around 9600. Right now we could be in a similar accumulation sideways range on a smaller scale.
2. Elliott Wave: Bulls are not done yet. Next targets for wave 3 are 8700, 8900. It seems that we need another leg up on a daily, otherwise the cycle in not complete, does not have a proper top.
A move to 9600 is also one of the possibilities in EW - a WXY flat upwards correction.
Bitcoin has stopped at 65% of the prev high. To definitively shift bias to bullish we need to break 8500.
Right now a bearish scenario with a return below 8000 could still play out. This pump could be wave X with wave Y going down.
3. MAs: We have breached all major MA resistance and Supply Lines except the D1 SMA200 at 8700. We're very close, SMA200 is declining and Bitcoin could break it soon after some sideways consolidation.
In 2014/2015 Bear Market there was a major sell-off after the 1st breach of D1 SMA200 with a bull run starting after the 2nd, so this is an important level.
The curving of all major MAs now allows for a Golden Cross on a Daily in late August. This could mean the start of a new bull run.
The MA Cross on D1 usually gives us on avg 4-6 months of a new trend in general. August will be the 5th month of bear. So, this could imply a bullish reversal.
4. Ichimoku: There's a weekly cloud with a flat bottom till Sep 17. We might not break it and bounce down.
5. Futures, ETF: July futures were obviously long, August futures will also likely be long due to rumors/expectations of a possible ETF approval as early as September.
So, we could have 1-2 green months ahead in BTFD mode.
On the other hand, this whole ETF thing could be just hype to manipulate the market into FOMO and dump bitcoins on retail investors.
They could always say that ETF rumors are fake and make the price drop towards the September futures, then in another leak say that ETF's coming in Q1 2019 and drive the price up again etc.
And this news could be aligned with the futures expiration dates. So, look out for any BTC ETF news - it will become a major price driver.
No major sell-off after July 27th will prove that the hype is real and not tailored to a particular futures expiration date.
6. The alts are slowly bleeding and dying. The alt season will begin once Bitcoin enters consolidation. Usually when Bitcoin's done, major alts will start their own accumulation cycles.
Right now the Bitcoin Dominance is 47%, the highest since Feb. Historically this aligns with extreme prices and RSI or a bull run and makes BTC the best performing asset, so people sell alts for BTC and sell BTC for alts after the bull run ends. Don't expect them all run at the same time.
7. How to spot a pump/bull run? Wait for a trend change on a daily after a cross of faster 12 and 26 EMAs. All smaller TFs should also cross to make it possible. Use a Golden cross to confirm.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Use at your own risk!
Comment:
Gold went Up 500% after the 1st Gold ETF was launched
Comment:
Silver went up 490% after the 1st Silver ETF was launched
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