Good morning, traders. Price has continued to move well yesterday and into today, hitting our third target (based on the height of the flagpole) at $3945 while pushing through the 50 and 100 day MAs. Most TFs are overbought at this point, including the daily. Yesterday's volume continued expansion, which I have been mentioning for a while now that traders should be watching, as it hit a 10-month high. I also said, yesterday, that I wanted to see price close above $3774, which it did. At this point, price has cleared the descending channel resistance and is sitting above the symmetrical triangle resistance. However, price has not retested either as support yet. I am not a fan of price falling back into the triangle, but diagonals are nothing more than a by-product of continuous horizontals and a retest of $3690-3720 would do wonders for another bullish push. So, that's what I'm looking for at this time. Anything significantly lower, for instance a close below the ascending channel that is possibly printing, puts the idea of bullishness into jeopardy. A possible double top may be forming on the 15 minute TF with a confirmation being a close below the $3840 swing low which would signal a target of $3720 based on that pattern and would provide a retest of that 2-month-old descending channel resistance as support. A close above $4237 would print a higher high to go with the current higher low and establish a possible uptrend.
During yesterday's morning video update, I stated that this was especially not the time to trade emotionally. So this is a good opportunity to remind everyone of the other possible price targets that I have been mentioning for the past few months. 1) Bitfinex price structure does not have price exiting the symmetrical triangle yet, unlike Bitstamp which has seen price move about $100 above the triangle's resistance so far. This means that we could see price printing an ABCDE triangle which would result in one more leg down. That would mean that price is currently completing the C leg with a D leg down to the bottom of the triangle once more and an E leg up to the top, remaining, before that leg down. In that case, the symmetrical triangle pattern target would be around $2300-$2400. But that would also complete five waves down and signal a likely reversal from that area. 2) Another idea is that we are currently completing the fifth wave as an ending diagonal which would likely complete around the September 2017 low ($2900-$3000). 3) Price could be completing a more complex correction which would see price targeting the sub-$2000 level. 4) Even if price continues higher, failure to continue above $5000 could still see that move up as the completion of Wave 4 with the final wave still to come and targeting sub-$2000 as well.
If the current price structure is accumulation then that would make the only truly plausible possibilities the bullish reversal currently happening or #2. In regards to the latter, I would prefer to see price reach the R2 pivot/descending channel target and get rejected by the supply in that area, as well as the ATH descending resistance, before heading back down to create a slightly lower corrective low in the $2900s. This would print a well-formed ST within Phase B and prepare price for a further price advance toward the top of the TR at around $4300. There is also the possibility, as I have shown numerous times before, that the TR as drawn is exaggerated and the actual TR is between $3474 and $4410. The difference lies in whether you are looking at the TR via the D1 or W1 TF. Obviously this is a lot of information and possibilities to take in, so I will be going over it more directly in this morning's video update.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
During yesterday's morning video update, I stated that this was especially not the time to trade emotionally. So this is a good opportunity to remind everyone of the other possible price targets that I have been mentioning for the past few months. 1) Bitfinex price structure does not have price exiting the symmetrical triangle yet, unlike Bitstamp which has seen price move about $100 above the triangle's resistance so far. This means that we could see price printing an ABCDE triangle which would result in one more leg down. That would mean that price is currently completing the C leg with a D leg down to the bottom of the triangle once more and an E leg up to the top, remaining, before that leg down. In that case, the symmetrical triangle pattern target would be around $2300-$2400. But that would also complete five waves down and signal a likely reversal from that area. 2) Another idea is that we are currently completing the fifth wave as an ending diagonal which would likely complete around the September 2017 low ($2900-$3000). 3) Price could be completing a more complex correction which would see price targeting the sub-$2000 level. 4) Even if price continues higher, failure to continue above $5000 could still see that move up as the completion of Wave 4 with the final wave still to come and targeting sub-$2000 as well.
If the current price structure is accumulation then that would make the only truly plausible possibilities the bullish reversal currently happening or #2. In regards to the latter, I would prefer to see price reach the R2 pivot/descending channel target and get rejected by the supply in that area, as well as the ATH descending resistance, before heading back down to create a slightly lower corrective low in the $2900s. This would print a well-formed ST within Phase B and prepare price for a further price advance toward the top of the TR at around $4300. There is also the possibility, as I have shown numerous times before, that the TR as drawn is exaggerated and the actual TR is between $3474 and $4410. The difference lies in whether you are looking at the TR via the D1 or W1 TF. Obviously this is a lot of information and possibilities to take in, so I will be going over it more directly in this morning's video update.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.