BTCUSD: Hodlers will capitulate, peak 'Brrrrrr' stupidity...
I suspect the weekly down trend will extend towards the downside target suggested by the monthly timeframe here. Since the Fed announced their 'whatever it takes / infinite QE' approach towards containing the economic shock caused by the COVID19 induced panic, Bitcoin enthusiasts were quick to find yet another excuse to be all in, and justify their expectations, despite the downside move that started from 9950 a few weeks ago.
Since short sellers covered part of their positions at 3850 after margin calling everyone who was margin long on Earth, holders have regained confidence quickly and now expect bullish price action to come here, accepting this idea as Gospel and being quite vocal and emotional about it.
The fact so many expect this (together with the stock market to fall further) and the halving to be a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin I think the opposite is true and we will get a Bakkt 2.0 style event.
Once Bitcoin can't surge after the halving short sellers will push harder, and as prices slide on lack of demand, holders will start to panic and rush to send coins to exchanges, causing slow block times, until the next difficulty adjustment to come during June probably (1k blocks later), as miners turn off machines on the way down. The next logical support level in the long term chart resides at 1500 or nearby, which would make the bleeding stop just shy of filling the 'all time high retest' theorists' buy orders, leaving them eating dust as the market stages a furious come back rally.
If on the other hand prices glide sideways until then and then break over 7411.85 this scenario will be put in question. If valid we can get daily timeframe down trend signals to short it soon. My clients will be the first to know, when we can trade with good reward to risk and probability.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Since short sellers covered part of their positions at 3850 after margin calling everyone who was margin long on Earth, holders have regained confidence quickly and now expect bullish price action to come here, accepting this idea as Gospel and being quite vocal and emotional about it.
The fact so many expect this (together with the stock market to fall further) and the halving to be a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin I think the opposite is true and we will get a Bakkt 2.0 style event.
Once Bitcoin can't surge after the halving short sellers will push harder, and as prices slide on lack of demand, holders will start to panic and rush to send coins to exchanges, causing slow block times, until the next difficulty adjustment to come during June probably (1k blocks later), as miners turn off machines on the way down. The next logical support level in the long term chart resides at 1500 or nearby, which would make the bleeding stop just shy of filling the 'all time high retest' theorists' buy orders, leaving them eating dust as the market stages a furious come back rally.
If on the other hand prices glide sideways until then and then break over 7411.85 this scenario will be put in question. If valid we can get daily timeframe down trend signals to short it soon. My clients will be the first to know, when we can trade with good reward to risk and probability.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
It appears gap traders tried to push #BTCUSD up but they only managed to get it half way towards the CME gap level
I'm thinking we get a sideways range for a week, then maybe break lower here. Overall market is sideways until the halving or near it probably, so it will be better to sidestep the sideways action as it is far harder to trade.
Comment:
What would frustrate or confuse the most people watching or trading #BTCUSD? I'm thinking breakout buyers will get chopped even after the halving possibly. The weekly chart won't flash a buy signal until June 8th-15th possibly:
Since reward to risk is not favorable here, I'll watch patiently from the sidelines until we get a good entry with defined risk. Think either Oct-Dec 2014 or Jan-Sept 2015...or Dec-April 2018...
Order cancelled:
I'm thinking price will go sideways holding over 5900 mostly until June.
The monthly bearish signal will end up failing if that is the case. That would be fully confirmed moving over 9950 really. But we could look into buying dips here and holding (don't oversize)
The monthly bearish signal will end up failing if that is the case. That would be fully confirmed moving over 9950 really. But we could look into buying dips here and holding (don't oversize)
Comment:
' I'm thinking price will go sideways holding over 5900 mostly until June.
The monthly bearish signal will end up failing if that is the case. That would be fully confirmed moving over 9950 really. But we could look into buying dips here and holding (don't oversize)'
Last update.
The monthly bearish signal will end up failing if that is the case. That would be fully confirmed moving over 9950 really. But we could look into buying dips here and holding (don't oversize)'
Last update.
