I think the landscape changed a bit, probably due to excess leverage that needed to be weeded out. It altered the shape of the long term chart, but overall, didn't change the fundamentals or long term technical potential the #Bitcoin chart has. Now that sentiment has fully reset, I believe buying gradually here will pay off. Unless price hits 2544 within 3 weeks or less, we probably saw the bottom retesting the accumulation level at 3800 ish. Note the vertical lines on chart, every time we had a big range down swing in the 2 Month timeframe, it was a bear trap, followed by a mid term to long term bottom so far...This time, we managed to get a 'Range expansion' move pointing down in that timeframe again.
This can lead to a rally towards 98k in the event of a squeeze over time.
My guess is miners stopped the fall covering their hedges, with maybe some help from spot buys from big long term traders. People are still in awe and expecting further downside it seems, in my case I was short from 9100 lately, covered at 8060 and reshorted 7411, to then finally cover at 4605 using futures. Interestingly $GBTC premium had evaporated at the low...and futures premium wiped out too.
I believe we will have more clarity within 3 to 5 weeks but overall am bullish on #BTCUSD long term, at these prices. Weekly downtrend signal target was hit (price briefly traded lower than it but then rebounded -see red box, target was 4605-). By June the sell pressure from this signal should be exhausted. A sideways range here would be logical, before moving higher, to then retest the 9950 level as the next target zone. If it manages to finally break above that zone, we may start trending and break the all time high finally...If not, market is sideways and in control of bears. Let's see how it evolves.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
This can lead to a rally towards 98k in the event of a squeeze over time.
My guess is miners stopped the fall covering their hedges, with maybe some help from spot buys from big long term traders. People are still in awe and expecting further downside it seems, in my case I was short from 9100 lately, covered at 8060 and reshorted 7411, to then finally cover at 4605 using futures. Interestingly $GBTC premium had evaporated at the low...and futures premium wiped out too.
I believe we will have more clarity within 3 to 5 weeks but overall am bullish on #BTCUSD long term, at these prices. Weekly downtrend signal target was hit (price briefly traded lower than it but then rebounded -see red box, target was 4605-). By June the sell pressure from this signal should be exhausted. A sideways range here would be logical, before moving higher, to then retest the 9950 level as the next target zone. If it manages to finally break above that zone, we may start trending and break the all time high finally...If not, market is sideways and in control of bears. Let's see how it evolves.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
I copied the 1987 bottom in stocks and overlaid it on top of weekly #BTCUSD, weekly dissipation of energy from the rapid fall could take a similar shape:
It's not a forecast, but good to keep in mind, similar decline.
Trade closed manually:
I think 58% gain is enough for now. People have turned bullish since price jumped to 7100 and never gave up since. I moved to cash. I'll wait until we have a solid bottoming pattern and correct sentiment for a bottom.
Order cancelled:
There's a big problem with #BTCUSD long term chart here...Unless price breaks over 7411.85 (and first over 6450) there is a big chance it's trending down in the long term, until it hits 1177
Truth is demand should have come here, but we only see weak buyers that already ran out of money after the QE news came out. We remain hedged and waiting for a clear signal of bullishness. It won't come for many weeks possibly, or maybe not for months and months if the long term signal pans out. I will try to short profitably if viable but I'm mostly trying to gain BTC and not lose USD in this market now.
Trade active:
Looking to gradually buy back on dips.
Comment:
I will post an update soon, currently waiting for the halving and price action surrounding it. My reccomendation is to stay long for the most part. I've traded in and out and managed to outperform holding since last year but it is getting harder and harder to gain BTC going short. I don't think most people will benefit from that approach anymore.
Safest to keep up to 25% long in spot #BTC off exchange. We may get a good reward to risk short term entry soon, and later on a good long term signal to add some extra risk, but not yet.
Safest to keep up to 25% long in spot #BTC off exchange. We may get a good reward to risk short term entry soon, and later on a good long term signal to add some extra risk, but not yet.
