botje11

Bitcoin and The China Crackdown :(

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Seems China is at it again, throwing some serious FUD in the markets. Just seeing it all, so i assume that China has caused this drop. Think that worries me a lot, Yesterday we had a very bullish daily candle close. Normally worst case, we would have seen a very weak follow through to like 37 and than after day or 2 seeing it drop again. Thats the worst case i know in my 20 years, after a bullish candle close like we had yesterday.

But as we can see obviously, price dumped way below yesterdays low even, i am not sure, but don't think i have ever seen a daily candle like this fail like we are seeing today. This worries me a lot. I dont want to spread any fear, just what we are seeing today, is not normal. I also can't judge how bad this China crackdown is. I hear many different opinions from people, some saying it's even bullish for the market, long term that is. Because now mining is concentrated for 65% in China i think, with this crackdown, it will be spread more evenly over the world. I do agree with, always better to have things more decentralized

I do believe long term that's probably better, but Bitcoin does need to survive it short term. How big are the China miners bags? Will they sell everything now? Which will put a lot of pressure on the price obviously, if they sell?.

These are questions, i don't have the answers for, so i don't dare to say this time if it's Whale tricks to make retail sell the lows and then pump the price like they normally do. This is what i kept thinking past 2/4 weeks.

Now, i honestly don't know. Think if we close at the lows or drop even more, its most likely bad. If, hopefully, we see price go up again and safe the daily candle from becoming very bad, then maybe it was just a panic day and maybe we can leave it behind us again. Think for that, we need a close above 34.5/35, that would give me some hope that bulls are not completely scared.

You know, sometimes i feel confident about a direction, sometimes i dont have my own view then i give levels for you to work with. Rarely i have no idea at all, i am very close to the last one now. Now best thing we can hope for is, that the daily close gets saved a little bit at least. Closing at the lows, think would be pretty bad. To illustrate, closing at the top grey area, would be very bullish . Closing at the one below it, would be decent, would give some hope for bulls. Closing below 34k, think its pretty weak in general. Closing around 32k, think it will be very bad.


When you look back at past half year (or past years), you know i have my moments i am predicting the lows and highs, i am giving a view that eventually plays out with some delay. I sometimes am completely wrong. This time i assumed was going to be one that with some delay would probably go as i was thinking. But i am a bit scared now, i must admit that :). Because of this weird failure of the daily candle, just never seen it before (of course it's as if i have seen 20 years of charts of all the assets in the world). So, if someone has a similar candle failure, please show me in the comment section below, because i have not seen it.

So in general, think bulls need to hope that today closes at a decent price. Yesterday i said the following:

Was having a April 2018 feeling since yesterday, very similar, not in shape but in steps. Only big difference are alts though, then they were much stronger, now underperforming btc in this consolidation.

Past 3 weeks or so was telling some people, that maybe whales are postponing shit, until after June 25th, because of the futures quarter expiration. They did that trick in as well few days after March 2019 expiration, when btc pumped above 4K and did the summer rally. Since it’s so close to the 25th, think maybe they keep it in the 38/31 range until then.


Then shortly after i saw BTC pumped to above 36k even, which made me think okay, this is looking even more like April 2018 now. But todays drop, even more because of the China news, I can't be confident at this moment about the whole idea. I also have a theory on ETH chart, but for that i also need to see today's close be much better than it is now. If so, i will post about that tomorrow

So for now, I would still be somewhat careful, if it was only the charts and whales, i would not have a problem with these smart money games. But because of the China news, it always makes me nervous when a big country cracks down on crypto. It's the biggest danger that always hangs above this market. Something i kept saying many times since 2017/18, but i dialed that down a bit past year because more and more countries seemed to be accepting/adopting it. But then past 2 months we have seen again, doesn't even matter who says what in what country, another part of the government can decide something else again. Maybe they are all playing games, who knows. We need to see where we are in 5/10 years from now to know for sure.

So for the bulls, hope today recovers a bit. For the bears, even if this market is already in a bear market, be aware of nasty short squeezes.


Previous analysis:




Comment: A very bad daily close, was watching it the last hours, could see that each small attempt was getting slammed down pretty fast. Then just after the daily close, the market goes. To me that says there is control going on, with what end, i dont dare to say.

For now, we can see the first key resistances for ETH and BTC. If bulls would have the power, to get this 4H candle in or above that white zone, would be a pretty good push back from bulls. Small step would be BTC above 33k and ETH above 2000. Those would be small steps though, and small steps have not helped a lot lately


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